Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Maine Senate 2026

57.2% DTroy Jackson leads TruthIndex™Toss-up
Polymarket
59.5%
Kalshi
56.5%
Spread
3.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Maine Senate.

  1. Troy Jackson tells Susan Collins to 'shut up' during heated Maine Senate debate

    PORTLAND, Maine – Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson told Republican Sen. Susan Collins to “shut up” during a heated final Maine U.S. Senate debate that also included an interruption from a data center protester.

  2. Troy Jackson tells Susan Collins to 'shut up' during Maine debate

    PORTLAND, Maine (AP): Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson told Republican Sen. Susan Collins to “shut up” during a heated final Maine U.S.

    Associated PressJacksonCollins
  3. Troy Jackson raises $20.4M in a furious Maine Senate campaign ramp-up

    Maine news, sports, politics, election results, and obituaries

    Bangor Daily NewsJackson
  4. Collins insists socialist rival won't beat her as Maine's money machine: 'You'll lose big time'

    The senator was interviewed in Bangor after landing the endorsement of the Maine chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police.

    Fox NewsPingreeCollins
  5. Who is Lana Pelletier? Troy Jackson’s Partner Reportedly His Second Cousin

    Jackson is a fifth-generation logger from Allagash in northern Maine and a former president of the Maine Senate.

    NewsweekJackson
More coverage 12
  1. Troy Jackson raises millions more than Susan Collins, but trails her in money race

    In Q3 2026, Troy Jackson raised about $20.4 million, vastly more than Sen. Susan Collins, whoraised about $3.9 million.

    Portland Press-HeraldCollins
  2. Live updates: Candidates in Maine, Alaska and Michigan to square off in debates

    This NBC News live update centers on the Maine Senate race, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson.

    NBC NewsCollins
  3. Latest Polls for Maine Senate: Susan Collins, Troy Jackson Prep for Fourth Debate

    The Maine Senate race between Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D) remains highly competitive, with polls showing a tight contest and Toss-up dynamics.

    NewsweekCollins
  4. Trump boasts about cognitive test results at Arizona rally

    Republican Sen. Susan Collins further distanced herself from President Donald Trump in the Maine Senate debate against Democrat Troy Jackson on Tuesday.

    edition.cnn.comJackson
  5. Speaker Johnson dismisses skeptics as he campaigns for House GOP in Maine battleground

    While much of the attention in Maine has been on the state's volatile Senate race between incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, the House race for the open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep.

    Greenwich TimeJackson
  6. Union leader quoted in Maine Senate attack ad sends ‘cease and desist’ to GOP PAC

    Lawyers for a New York-based union leader have sent a letter demanding that the Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund “immediately cease and desist” from airing or broadcasting an ad that features a quote from him…

    NBC NewsJackson
  7. Jackson Faces Campaign Finance Disclosure Pressure in Maine Senate Race

    Democratic hopeful Troy Jackson is facing pressure to disclose his campaign donors in the Maine Senate race, with early voting now underway in the key midterm battle.

    NewsweekJackson
  8. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash over ICE in Maine Senate debate

    In a Maine Senate debate, Sen. Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson clashed over ICE reforms.

    Fox NewsCollins
  9. Hottest 2026 Midterm Races: Democrats Lead In Maine, Texas Senate Races (Updated Daily)

    In Maine, poll results show Democratic candidate Troy Jackson leading incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 49% to 47% in a Suffolk University poll updated Oct. 14.

    ForbesCollins
  10. Analyst weighs in on WABI’s Maine Senate debate

    Focus: Dr. Dan Shea, Colby College government professor and political author, analyzes the debate between Sen. Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson.

    WABICollins
  11. Maine Senate race tied at 49-47 between Troy Jackson and Susan Collins, Suffolk poll finds

    Poll: Maine Senate race is tied 49% for Democrat Troy Jackson and 47% for Republican incumbent Susan Collins (Suffolk University).

    usnewsamerica.comCollins
  12. A Trump backlash endangers Susan Collins, the only blue-state GOP senator

    Susan Collins in Maine faces a pivotal, high-stakes re-election as a blue-state Republican known for centrism and independence.

    Seattle TimesCollins

Troy Jackson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DTroy Jackson 57.2% 59.5% 56.5% 3.0 pts –
RSusan Collins 43.0% 41.5% 43.5% 2.0 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Susan Collins

Susan Collins

Republican United States Senator from Maine (since 1997); chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee (since 2025)

Susan Collins, a Republican who has represented Maine in the US Senate since 1997, is seeking a sixth term in 2026 against Democrat Troy Jackson.

Born 1952 · Caribou, Maine
Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson

Democratic

Troy Jackson, a logger who presided over the Maine Senate from 2018 to 2024, is the Democratic nominee challenging Republican Susan Collins in Maine's 2026 Senate election.

Born 1968 · Fort Kent, Maine

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi95.8K contracts

Maine Senate margin of victory

Collins, 1+ pts
39.0%
Collins, 3+ pts
27.5%
Collins, 5+ pts
15.5%
Collins, 7+ pts
10.1%
Collins, 8+ pts
6.6%
Collins, 10+ pts
3.9%
Collins, 12+ pts
2.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi244.3K contracts

Maine Senate margin of victory

Jackson, 1+ pts
51.0%
Jackson, 3+ pts
37.5%
Jackson, 5+ pts
20.5%
Jackson, 7+ pts
9.8%
Jackson, 9+ pts
7.3%
Jackson, 11+ pts
6.6%
Jackson, 13+ pts
6.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$2.3M traded

Prices which party wins.

Troy Jackson: Counted · bid 59.0% / ask 60.0% · $114.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.8M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Troy Jackson: Counted · bid 56.0% / ask 57.0% · $374.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Troy Jackson

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Maine for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi