US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NM-02 House.
The article covers Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico saying he does not support the newly introduced Reimagining Safety Act, a bill drafted by Democratic Rep. Delia Ramirez of Illinois (IL-03).
Haaland, a former congresswoman and U.S. interior secretary, has been described as a longtime friend and policy partner of Warren’s.
HaalandCunningham
VasquezEvent: Greg Cunningham, the Republican candidate for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District (CD2), hosted a Las Cruces campaign event featuring top House Republicans, including Steve Scalise.
VasquezGreg Cunningham campaigned in Las Cruces at the Electronic Caregiver on Main Street, speaking about his bid for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. He is running against incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez.
Greg Cunningham (NM-02) to be joined by House Majority Whip Steve Scalise at a Las Cruces press conference focused on the race for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.
Greg Cunningham in NM-02 House race highlights tougher crime stance and more police presence. At a Las Cruces event with U.S.
New Mexico representatives urge independent, transparent investigation of the August 19 WIPP incident. U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Luján, along with U.S.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGabe Vasquez | 91.2% | 91.9% | 91.1% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RGreg Cunningham | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat who has represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district since 2023 after serving on the Las Cruces City Council, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Greg Cunningham.
Greg Cunningham, a Republican and retired police officer, is the party's nominee for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory
| Vasquez, 1+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Vasquez, 4+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Vasquez, 7+ pts | 69.0% | |
| Vasquez, 10+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Vasquez, 13+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Vasquez, 16+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Vasquez, 19+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Vasquez, 22+ pts | 9.5% | |
| Vasquez, 25+ pts | 4.5% |
NM-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 5%+ | – | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 12.1% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 25%+ | 4.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Gabe Vasquez: Counted · bid 91.8% / ask 91.9% · $5.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Gabe Vasquez: Counted · bid 90.8% / ask 91.4% · $62.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Gabe Vasquez
If the House member sworn in for NM-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
