House · 3 November 2026

NM-03 House 2026

96.4% DTeresa Leger Fernández leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.6%
Kalshi: 95.7%
Spread: 0.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Teresa Leger Fernández, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DTeresa Leger Fernández	96.4%		96.6%	95.7%	0.9 pts	–
RMartin Zamora	3.1%		2.9%	3.4%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Martin Zamora

Republican Member of the New Mexico House of Representatives from the 63rd district (since 2019)

Martin Zamora, a Republican farmer who has represented the 63rd district in the New Mexico House of Representatives since 2019, faces Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in 2026.

Clovis, New Mexico

Full candidate profile →

Teresa Leger Fernández

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district (since 2021)

Teresa Leger Fernández, a Democrat and attorney who has represented New Mexico's 3rd congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican state representative Martin Zamora.

Born 1959 · Las Vegas, New Mexico

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi949 contracts

New Mexico's 3rd District margin of victory

Fernández, 6+ pts		89.2%
Fernández, 9+ pts		81.5%
Fernández, 12+ pts		72.5%
Fernández, 15+ pts		65.5%
Fernández, 18+ pts		54.5%
Fernández, 21+ pts		43.5%
Fernández, 24+ pts		32.5%
Fernández, 27+ pts		21.5%
Fernández, 30+ pts		10.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.5K traded

NM-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.5%
Democrat 0-5%		4.3%
Democrat 5-10%		4.4%
Democrat 10-15%		4.1%
Democrat 15-20%		21.0%
Democrat 20-25%		29.9%
Democrat 25-30%		22.5%
Democrat 30-35%		3.6%
Democrat 35%+		4.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$53.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Teresa Leger Fernández: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.3% · $2.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.1K contracts traded