nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NM-01 House 2026

96.6% DMelanie Stansbury leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.7%
Kalshi
96.6%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NM-01 House.

  1. Incumbents lead by wide margins in NM congressional races according to lates ABQ Journal poll

    Didi Okpareke trails Democrat Melanie Stansbury in NM-01 according to the latest Albuquerque Journal poll.

    KKOBOkpareke

Melanie Stansbury, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DMelanie Stansbury 96.6% 96.7% 96.6% 0.1 pts –
RDidi Okpareke 1.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Didi Okpareke

Republican

Didi Okpareke, a Republican pharmacist, is the party's nominee for New Mexico's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Melanie Stansbury in the November 3 general election.

Melanie Stansbury

Melanie Stansbury

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 1st congressional district (since 2021)

Melanie Stansbury, a Democrat who has represented New Mexico's 1st congressional district since winning a 2021 special election, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Didi Okpareke, a pharmacist.

Born 1979 · Farmington, New Mexico

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi236 contracts

New Mexico's 1st District margin of victory

Stansbury, 11+ pts
91.7%
Stansbury, 14+ pts
80.5%
Stansbury, 17+ pts
70.5%
Stansbury, 20+ pts
60.5%
Stansbury, 23+ pts
50.5%
Stansbury, 26+ pts
40.5%
Stansbury, 29+ pts
30.5%
Stansbury, 32+ pts
20.5%
Stansbury, 35+ pts
9.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.0K traded

NM-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.5%
Democrat 0-10%
2.0%
Democrat 10-15%
3.7%
Democrat 15-20%
21.0%
Democrat 20-25%
28.5%
Democrat 25-30%
23.0%
Democrat 30-35%
18.2%
Democrat 35-40%
3.1%
Democrat 40%+
4.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$45.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Melanie Stansbury: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.4% · $709 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Melanie Stansbury: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.9% · $842 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Melanie Stansbury

If the House member sworn in for NM-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New Mexico

  1. New Mexico SenateD97%
  2. New Mexico GovernorD94%
  3. NM-02 HouseD91%
  4. NM-03 HouseD96%