US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for New Mexico Senate.
WASHINGTON - U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico and four other Democratic senators are demanding that American broadcasters disclose their dealings with the Trump administration and reimburse taxpayers for airing…
LujánThe article reports that nearly 5,000 Sandoval County ballots were cast as early voting expanded on Saturday. In federal races listed, U.S.
The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.
There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján maintained a sizable lead over Republican challenger Larry Marker, an Albuquerque Journal poll showed on Wednesday.
A Albuquerque Journal poll, cited by Hyperlocal Loop, shows incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Ben Ray Luján leading Republican challenger Larry Marker by 16 points in New Mexico: 53% to 37%, with 10% undecided.
MarkerHere is our full chat with the candidate looking to unseat incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan.
MarkerSenator Ben Ray Luján reintroduced legislation aimed at strengthening child protections and safety standards within the agriculture industry.
Luján leads among independents (54% vs. 26%), across all age groups, and in most regions except the conservative east
LujánThe article describes how the Fix Our Forests Act (FOFA) incorporates years of wildfire-lesson guidance and reflects New Mexico priorities championed by Senator Ben Ray Luján.
LujánThe U.S. Senate Finance Committee, led by Ranking Member Ron Wyden and joined by Senators Sheldon Whitehouse, Elizabeth Warren, Catherine Cortez Masto, Maggie Hassan, Ben Ray Luján, and Peter Welch, urged Meta to…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBen Ray Luján | 97.1% | 97.4% | 97.1% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| RLarry Marker | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Ben Ray Luján, a Democrat who has represented New Mexico in the U.S. Senate since 2021, is seeking a second term against Republican Larry Marker in 2026.
Larry Marker, a former oil and gas operator, is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in New Mexico in 2026, nominated as a write-in after no Republican qualified for the primary ballot.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New Mexico Senate margin of victory
| Luján, 9+ pts | 95.2% | |
| Luján, 11+ pts | 92.7% | |
| Luján, 13+ pts | 88.9% | |
| Luján, 15+ pts | 83.0% | |
| Luján, 17+ pts | 75.0% | |
| Luján, 19+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Luján, 21+ pts | 55.0% | |
| Luján, 23+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Luján, 25+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Luján, 27+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Luján, 29+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Luján, 31+ pts | 10.9% |
New Mexico Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 3%+ | 3.8% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 2.3% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 2.8% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 1.8% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 6.4% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 2.6% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 6.7% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 18-21% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 21%+ | 51.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Ben Ray Luján: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 97.8% · $2.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Ben Ray Luján: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 97.4% · $15.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ben Ray Luján
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of New Mexico for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
