Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Arizona: HCR 2003 (transgender school and athletic access)

60.5% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™ · Polymarket onlyLean Yes

Polymarket: 60.5%
Kalshi: –
Spread: –
24h: 0.0
7 days: −1.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

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Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	24h
Yes	60.5% Polymarket only		60.5%	0.0

Polymarket

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$1.8K traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 60.0% / ask 61.0% · $2.1K within 5 pts

Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).

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