Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Missouri: Missouri Amendment 3 (abortion and gender transition)

54.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlyToss-up

Polymarket: –
Kalshi: 54.0%
Spread: –
24h: +1.0
7 days: −2.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. Only one venue lists it, so the figure comes from that venue alone. The thinner line is that venue's own daily price.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Kalshi	24h
Yes	54.0% Kalshi only		54.0%	+1.0

Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/missouri-missouri-amendment-3-abortion-and-gender-transition/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-missouri-missouri-amendment-3-abortion-and-gender-transition">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Each venue's market

Kalshi8.6K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 51.0% / ask 57.0% · $181 within 5 pts

If Missouri Amendment 3, which would repeal abortion protections and prohibit gender transitions for minors in Missouri passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

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