US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MO-07 House.
Missouri House Rep. Jason Smith (MO-08) participated in a Washington advocacy event with Sullivan County hospital leaders. The group met with staff from Rep. Smith’s office as well as other Missouri lawmakers (Reps.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianThe article discusses the current state and potential growth of the Freedom Caucus as it enters a transitional period, with members like Missouri Rep.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REric Burlison | 96.5% | 96.0% | 97.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DMissi Hesketh | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Eric Burlison, a Republican who has represented Missouri's 7th congressional district since 2023 after serving in both chambers of the Missouri legislature, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Missi Hesketh.
Missi Hesketh, a Democrat and former mayor of Forsyth who was her party's 2024 nominee, is again running for Missouri's 7th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Eric Burlison.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Missouri's 7th District margin of victory
| Republicans, 25+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Republicans, 28+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Republicans, 31+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Republicans, 34+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Republicans, 37+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Republicans, 40+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Republicans, 43+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Republicans, 46+ pts | 7.0% | |
| Republicans, 49+ pts | 3.8% |
MO-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 5.1% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 8.3% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 5.3% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 2.4% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 14.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 26.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 16.0% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 5.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Eric Burlison: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 96.5% · $469 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Eric Burlison: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 99.6% · $435 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Eric Burlison
If the House member sworn in for MO-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
