nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MO-02 House 2026

76.7% RAnn Wagner leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
77.0%
Kalshi
76.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+2.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MO-02 House.

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More coverage 2
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  2. Federal Register :: Meaning of Terms as Used in This Subchapter; Representation Proceedings; National Consultation Rights and Consultation Rights on Government-Wide Rules or Regulations; Miscellaneous and General Requirements

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Ann Wagner, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAnn Wagner 76.7% 77.0% 76.5% 0.5 pts –
DFred Wellman 23.3% 22.5% 24.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Ann Wagner

Ann Wagner

Republican U.S. Representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district (since 2013)

Ann Wagner, a Republican who has represented Missouri's 2nd congressional district since 2013 and served as U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg from 2005 to 2009, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Fred Wellman.

Born 1962 · St. Louis, Missouri

Fred Wellman

Democratic

Fred Wellman, a Democrat and podcast host, is his party's nominee in 2026 for Missouri's 2nd congressional district, where he faces Republican incumbent Ann Wagner.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi6.5K contracts

Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory

Republicans, 1+ pts
65.5%
Republicans, 3+ pts
55.5%
Republicans, 6+ pts
40.5%
Republicans, 9+ pts
28.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
17.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
7.4%
Republicans, 18+ pts
4.2%
Republicans, 21+ pts
5.9%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi884 contracts

Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory

Yes
22.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$21.0K traded

MO-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
5.8%
Republican 15-18%
0.5%
Republican 12-15%
–
Republican 9-12%
12.4%
Republican 6-9%
15.5%
Republican 3-6%
16.5%
Republican 0-3%
18.0%
Democrat 0-3%
5.0%
Democrat 3-6%
10.2%
Democrat 6%+
7.2%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$66.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ann Wagner: Counted · bid 76.0% / ask 78.0% · $29.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi82.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ann Wagner: Counted · bid 76.0% / ask 77.0% · $38.6K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ann Wagner

If the House member sworn in for MO-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Missouri

  1. MO-01 HouseD98%
  2. MO-03 HouseR96%
  3. MO-04 HouseR96%
  4. MO-05 HouseD96%
  5. MO-06 HouseR96%
  6. MO-07 HouseR96%
  7. MO-08 HouseR98%