House · 3 November 2026

MO-01 House 2026

98.1% DWesley Bell leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.9%
Kalshi: 98.2%
Spread: 0.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Wesley Bell, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DWesley Bell	98.1%		97.9%	98.2%	0.3 pts	–
RPaul Berry	1.5%		1.3%	1.7%	0.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Paul Berry

Republican

Paul Berry, a Republican bail bondsman and perennial candidate, is his party's nominee in 2026 for Missouri's 1st congressional district, where he faces Democratic incumbent Wesley Bell.

Full candidate profile →

Wesley Bell

Democratic U.S. Representative for Missouri's 1st congressional district (since 2025)

Wesley Bell, a Democrat who has represented Missouri's 1st congressional district since 2025 and earlier served as St. Louis County prosecuting attorney, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Paul Berry.

Born 1974 · St. Louis, Missouri

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.0K contracts

Missouri's 1st District margin of victory

Democrats, 49+ pts		92.3% implied
Democrats, 52+ pts		92.5%
Democrats, 55+ pts		77.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts		67.0%
Democrats, 61+ pts		48.0%
Democrats, 64+ pts		29.5%
Democrats, 67+ pts		13.7%
Democrats, 70+ pts		4.4%
Democrats, 73+ pts		5.2% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$23.0K traded

MO-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1% implied
Democrat 0-35%		4.8%
Democrat 35-45%		–
Democrat 45-50%		15.4%
Democrat 50-55%		17.6%
Democrat 55-60%		16.2%
Democrat 60-65%		22.0%
Democrat 65-70%		7.1%
Democrat 70-75%		5.5%
Democrat 75%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Wesley Bell: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.3% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.6K contracts traded