US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MO-05 House.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
Summary tailored to your query: "Chris Reichard" MO-08 House
The article discusses Democratic leadership dynamics in the House, highlighting Rep. Katherine Clark as a potential top leader if Democrats win the chamber.
Clark
Gottheimer
Cleaver
FosterTopic: Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri) and his stance within the House, particularly in relation to leadership dynamics and support for long-tenured members.
CleaverNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEmanuel Cleaver | 96.1% | 96.2% | 96.1% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RRick Brattin | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Emanuel Cleaver, a Democrat and United Methodist pastor who has represented Missouri's 5th congressional district since 2005 and was mayor of Kansas City from 1991 to 1999, faces Republican Rick Brattin in 2026.
Rick Brattin, a Republican Missouri state senator from the 31st district and Marine Corps veteran, is his party's nominee for Missouri's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Missouri's 5th District margin of victory
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 4.6% implied | |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Republicans, 12+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Republicans, 15+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 4.5% implied |
Missouri's 5th District margin of victory
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 97.1% | |
| Democrats, 6+ pts | 93.0% | |
| Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Democrats, 21+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Democrats, 24+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Democrats, 27+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Democrats, 30+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Democrats, 33+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Democrats, 36+ pts | 13.6% |
MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 0.5% implied | |
| Republican 18-21% | 0.7% implied | |
| Republican 15-18% | 0.2% implied | |
| Republican 12-15% | 0.4% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 0.1% implied | |
| Republican 6-9% | 0.2% implied | |
| Republican 3-6% | 0.3% implied | |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.7% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 1.7% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 96.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Emanuel Cleaver: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 96.9% · $8.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Emanuel Cleaver: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.1% · $33.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Emanuel Cleaver
If the House member sworn in for MO-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
