US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MO-06 House.
The article profiles Republican Chris Stigall's campaign for Missouri's 6th Congressional District, focusing on his policy emphasis and campaign stance.
Topic: Candidate interview for Missouri's 6th Congressional District (MO-06) House race.
Josh Smead, a Democrat and candidate for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District, centers his campaign on rural health care, public education, economic opportunity, and government accountability.
Chris Stigall is a Republican candidate running for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House.
The article is an interview feature with Chris Stigall, the Republican candidate for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District (MO-06), which is in North Missouri. The district is open with no incumbent.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RChris Stigall | 96.2% | 96.0% | 96.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DJosh Smead | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.4 pts | – |
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Chris Stigall, a Republican conservative talk radio host, is his party's nominee for Missouri's open 6th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Josh Smead after incumbent Sam Graves left the race.
Josh Smead, a Democratic architect, is his party's nominee for Missouri's open 6th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Republican radio show host Chris Stigall.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Missouri's 6th District margin of victory
| Republicans, 9+ pts | 95.8% | |
| Republicans, 12+ pts | 94.8% | |
| Republicans, 15+ pts | 90.4% | |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 88.9% | |
| Republicans, 21+ pts | 82.0% | |
| Republicans, 24+ pts | 72.0% | |
| Republicans, 27+ pts | 57.0% | |
| Republicans, 30+ pts | 41.0% | |
| Republicans, 33+ pts | 26.0% | |
| Republicans, 36+ pts | 13.2% | |
| Republicans, 39+ pts | 6.6% | |
| Republicans, 42+ pts | 4.5% |
MO-06 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.7% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.1% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 4.2% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 10.2% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 16.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.3% | |
| Republican 25-30% | – | |
| Republican 30-35% | – | |
| Republican 35%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Chris Stigall: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 97.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Chris Stigall: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 97.0% · $404 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Chris Stigall
If the House member sworn in for MO-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
