Top story
Missouri's 2025 Congressional Map: Legal Battle Continues (2026)
Topic: Missouri’s 2025 congressional map and ongoing legal challenge.
fortunelakelutherancamp.org
Onder
OnderUpdated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
MO-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.0%
- Kalshi
- 96.8%
- Spread
- 0.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for MO-03 House.
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Missouri House District 131
The page covers the Missouri House District 131 race for the November 3, 2026 ballot, featuring two candidates: Ashley Cossins and incumbent Bill Owen.
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Missouri Democrats aim to break Republicans’ streak of House supermajorities
The piece discusses Missouri’s ongoing political battleground as Democrats aim to snap Republicans’ streak of seven straight House supermajorities, needing just three seats to break the pattern.
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Missouri House District 130 candidates weigh in on a variety of topics
Topic: Candidates for Missouri House District 130 discuss policy topics in a 2026 Informed Voter Coalition interview.
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Missouri Voters Could Kill a Gerrymander: And Make It Harder for Politicians to Try Again
The article discusses Missouri voter initiatives Prop. A and Amendment 6 shaping redistricting and referendum power, with potential impact on future maps, including the Missouri-03 district represented by Bob Onder.
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Oct 15, 2026 Public Hearing: Jefferson, MO | Missouri
The Missouri document concerns Proposition A, a proposed congressional redistricting plan for the November 3, 2026 General Election ballot.
noticeregistry.comOnder
More coverage 1
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Three candidates compete for Missouri Senate District 30
The article profiles three open-seat candidates for Missouri Senate District 30 representing the Springfield area: Betsy Fogle, Melanie Stinnett, and Cecil Ince. It does not mention Bethany Mann or the MO-03 House race.
No story this week names this candidate.
Bob Onder, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBob Onder | 96.3% | 96.0% | 96.8% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DBethany Mann | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Bethany Mann
Democratic
Bethany Mann, a Democratic technology specialist who was her party's nominee in 2022 and 2024, is again the nominee for Missouri's 3rd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Bob Onder.
Bob Onder
Republican U.S. Representative for Missouri's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)
Bob Onder, a Republican physician and attorney who has represented Missouri's 3rd congressional district since 2025 after eight years in the Missouri Senate, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Bethany Mann.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.7K contracts
Missouri's 3rd District margin of victory
| Republicans, 5+ pts | 91.9% | |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | – | |
| Republicans, 11+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Republicans, 14+ pts | 69.0% | |
| Republicans, 17+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Republicans, 20+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Republicans, 23+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Republicans, 26+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Republicans, 29+ pts | 13.8% |
Polymarket$18.2K traded
MO-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 1.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.2% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 16.7% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 15.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 24.9% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 13.6% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 3.9% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$42.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
Bob Onder: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 97.3% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi5.3K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Bob Onder: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.8% · $929 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bob Onder
If the House member sworn in for MO-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Missouri
- MO-01 HouseD98%
- MO-02 HouseR77%
- MO-04 HouseR96%
- MO-05 HouseD96%
- MO-06 HouseR96%
- MO-07 HouseR96%
- MO-08 HouseR98%