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House · 3 November 2026
MO-04 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.8%
- Kalshi
- 96.2%
- Spread
- 0.6 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
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No story this week names this candidate.
Mark Alford, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMark Alford | 95.9% | 95.8% | 96.2% | 0.4 pts | – | |
| DJordan Herrera | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Jordan Herrera
Democratic
Jordan Herrera, a Democratic attorney, is his party's nominee in 2026 for Missouri's 4th congressional district, where he faces Republican incumbent Mark Alford.
Mark Alford
Republican U.S. Representative for Missouri's 4th congressional district (since 2023)
Mark Alford, a Republican former television news anchor who has represented Missouri's 4th congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Jordan Herrera.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi11.2K contracts
Missouri's 4th District margin of victory
| Republicans, 5+ pts | 95.6% | |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | 95.0% implied | |
| Republicans, 11+ pts | – | |
| Republicans, 14+ pts | 94.9% | |
| Republicans, 17+ pts | 93.3% | |
| Republicans, 20+ pts | 87.8% | |
| Republicans, 23+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Republicans, 26+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Republicans, 29+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Republicans, 32+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Republicans, 35+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Republicans, 38+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Republicans, 41+ pts | 6.9% | |
| Republicans, 44+ pts | 4.2% |
Polymarket$16.2K traded
MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.9% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 2.8% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 60.7% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$73.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
Mark Alford: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.5% · $10.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi8.3K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Mark Alford: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 98.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mark Alford
If the House member sworn in for MO-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Missouri
- MO-01 HouseD98%
- MO-02 HouseR77%
- MO-03 HouseR96%
- MO-05 HouseD96%
- MO-06 HouseR96%
- MO-07 HouseR96%
- MO-08 HouseR98%