nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

Iowa Governor 2026

89.4% DRob Sand leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
89.0%
Kalshi
89.5%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.9
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Iowa Governor.

  1. Rob Sand makes a quick stop at Sioux City’s Brightside Cafe

    Democratic candidate for Iowa Governor, Rob Sand, is continuing to tour the state with just a few weeks until the mid-term election and Thursday he made a

    aol.comSandAlso in kcau9.com
  2. Lahn is campaigning “for the culture” of Iowa
    carrollspaper.comLahn
  3. MAHA Action PAC throws financial support behind Iowa GOP gubernatorial candidate

    WASHINGTON (TNND): A “Make America Healthy Again” PAC is throwing money behind Iowa GOP gubernatorial Zach Lahn as the election gets closer.

    KATU.comLahn
  4. Rob Sand Meets with Seniors, Cancer Survivors, and Health Care Professionals on “Iowa for All” Tour

    Rob Sand for Iowa Governor. Rob is only beholden to the people of Iowa, and Rob stands up for what's right, even when it's hard.

    robsand.comCampaignSand
  5. Groups supporting RFK Jr. are spending nearly $2M in Iowa governor, House races

    The new spending is the most significant outlay from Kennedy-aligned groups since they helped Rep. Julia Letlow defeat Sen. Bill Cassidy in a Louisiana Republican primary in May.

    PoliticoLahnLetlowPingreeMitchellYarbrough
More coverage 10
  1. Sand, Lahn debate plans to tackle state budget shortfall while funding schools

    Iowa gubernatorial candidates Rob Sand and Zach Lahn contrasted their proposals Wednesday during a televised debate on how to fund Iowa priorities amid both a state budget deficit and high inflation rate.

    Iowa Capital DispatchSandLahnAlso in mississippivalleypublishing.com
  2. A Conversation with Zach Lahn

    FPR prefers to stay on the edge of electoral politics, but we do take an occasional interest in politicians with localist convictions who are trying to break into the major parties, like Washington State’s Marie…

    frontporchrepublic.comLahn
  3. Lahn, Sand clash over taxes, budget in second debate

    SIOUX CITY: Iowa’s budget, tax breaks for data centers and the future of property taxes took center stage as Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn and Democratic candidate Rob Sand faced off in their second…

    iowastatedaily.comLahn
  4. Home of the Marist Poll

    Just three points separate Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.

    Marist PollTurekSand
  5. Lahn, Sand face off on running mates, school funding, visas in second debate

    DES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa State Capitol Bureau): Iowa gubernatorial candidates Republican Zach Lahn and Democrat Rob Sand met on the debate stage for the second time.

    KTIVLahnAlso in wowt.com
  6. Rob Sand Makes Winning Case for a New Direction for Iowa in Second Gubernatorial Debate

    Rob Sand outlines a clear, voter-focused plan for Iowa’s governorship in his second gubernatorial debate, emphasizing lower costs for families, stronger public education, a balanced budget, and government…

    robsand.comCampaignSand
  7. Gubernatorial candidates clash on education, taxes, and state budget

    In their second debate, Democratic candidate Rob Sand and Republican opponent Zach Lahn clashed over education funding, taxes, state budget, and state affordability.

    dailyiowan.comSand
  8. Rob Sand and Zach Lahn debate education, economy in Sioux City

    Rob Sand (D) and Zach Lahn (R) debated Iowa gubernatorial issues in Sioux City, focusing on education and the economy.

    KCCI Des MoinesSand
  9. The Gazette Editorial Board: “Rob Sand is the Best Choice for Iowa Governor”

    Iowa has an open race for governor on the ballot for the first time in 20 years. Republican Zach Lahn, a businessman who owns a farm near Belle Plaine, is facing off against Democratic candidate Rob Sand, the current…

    robsand.comLahn
  10. When Zach Lahn warned Montanans against clean air and water rules

    The ideological contrast is striking. The 2014 Zach Lahn was a rising conservative star trying to win the trust of the Koch brothers and other establishment Republican donors.

    Bleeding HeartlandLahn

Rob Sand, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DRob Sand 89.4% 89.0% 89.5% 0.5 pts –
RZach Lahn 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Rob Sand

Rob Sand

Democratic State Auditor of Iowa (since 2019)

Rob Sand, a Democrat who has served as Iowa's state auditor since 2019, faces Republican businessman Zach Lahn for the open governorship of Iowa in 2026.

Born 1982 · Decorah, Iowa

Zach Lahn

Republican

Zach Lahn, a businessman originally from Iowa, won the 2026 Republican primary for governor of Iowa over Trump-endorsed congressman Randy Feenstra and faces Democratic state auditor Rob Sand.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi10.4K contracts

Iowa Governor margin of victory

Lahn, 3+ pts
7.6%
Lahn, 6+ pts
6.0%
Lahn, 9+ pts
4.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi47.6K contracts

Iowa Governor margin of victory

Sand, 1+ pts
82.5%
Sand, 3+ pts
71.0%
Sand, 6+ pts
50.0%
Sand, 9+ pts
27.0%
Sand, 12+ pts
18.5%
Sand, 15+ pts
7.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.2K traded

Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory

Lahn 12%+
0.7%
Lahn 9-12%
0.4%
Lahn 6-9%
0.8%
Lahn 3-6%
3.3%
Lahn 0-3%
9.4%
Sand 0-3%
13.7%
Sand 3-6%
14.0%
Sand 6-9%
21.5%
Sand 9-12%
14.6%
Sand 12%+
22.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$249.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Rob Sand: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 90.0% · $53.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.9M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Rob Sand: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 90.0% · $280.7K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Rob Sand

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Iowa

  1. Iowa SenateR57%
  2. IA-01 HouseD90%
  3. IA-02 HouseD59%
  4. IA-03 HouseD79%
  5. IA-04 HouseR96%