US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IA-01 House.
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, for example, was a top early target from the IC. Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks was elected on her fourth attempt, and Democratic former state Rep.
Kiley
Miller-MeeksPA-10, Scott Perry, R Trump +5.2 [...] What follows is the list of the 58 competitive seats, starting with the most Republican-leaning category and ending with the most Democratic-leaning category.
Miller-Meeks
GillenKileyRep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is facing Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in the race for Iowa’s District 1 in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Miller-MeeksThough forecasters and polls show tight races in Iowa, Republicans retain a state lead in registered voters. GOP candidates and leaders have urged Republicans to mobilize and participate in the Nov.
BohannanIowa GOP chairman Jeff Kaufmann says President Trump will hold events in Iowa on Thursday October 22 and Sunday, November 1.
Miller-Meeks“This is where the campaigns themselves are going to have to make sure that they've got a good plan for doing that local level get out to vote activity more than anything else,” Hagle said.
BohannanNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DChristina Bohannan | 90.5% | 91.0% | 90.4% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| RMariannette Miller-Meeks | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| IMichael Bridgford | 1.0% implied |
– | – | – | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Christina Bohannan, a Democrat, law professor and former Iowa state representative, faces Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and independent Michael Bridgford in Iowa's 1st congressional district in 2026, her third race against Miller-Meeks.
Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican physician who has represented Iowa in the U.S. House since 2021, seeks re-election in Iowa's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Christina Bohannan and independent Michael Bridgford.
Michael Bridgford, an independent financial advisor, is running as an independent candidate in Iowa's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Iowa's 1st District margin of victory
| Meeks, 3+ pts | 4.0% | |
| Meeks, 6+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Meeks, 9+ pts | 4.1% implied |
Iowa's 1st District margin of victory
| Bohannan, 3+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Bohannan, 6+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Bohannan, 9+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Bohannan, 12+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Bohannan, 15+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Bohannan, 18+ pts | 11.2% |
IA-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 6%+ | 1.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 4.3% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 8.2% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 11.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 19.1% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 18.0% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 8.4% | |
| Democrat 18%+ | 3.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Christina Bohannan: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 92.0% · $6.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Christina Bohannan: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 90.8% · $61.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Christina Bohannan
If the House member sworn in for IA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
