nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IA-02 House 2026

59.5% DLindsay James leads TruthIndex™Toss-up
Polymarket
60.5%
Kalshi
58.5%
Spread
3.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+3.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IA-02 House.

  1. Anti-corruption push shapes Iowa's toss-up 2nd Congressional race

    Race context: Iowa's 2nd Congressional District features a toss-up contest between Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James and Republican former state lawmaker Joe Mitchell, both emphasizing anti-corruption platforms.

    Des Moines RegisterJamesMitchell
  2. Groups supporting RFK Jr. are spending nearly $2M in Iowa governor, House races

    The new spending is the most significant outlay from Kennedy-aligned groups since they helped Rep. Julia Letlow defeat Sen. Bill Cassidy in a Louisiana Republican primary in May.

    PoliticoLahnLetlowPingreeMitchellYarbrough
  3. Democrats and Republicans fight over beef and how much it costs. – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth

    The article notes that Republican opponents are targeting two Democratic candidates for the U.S. House: Lindsay James in Iowa’s 2nd District and Amish Shah in Arizona’s 1st District.

    NBC 5James
  4. Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

    Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

    insidepoliticalmoney.comJamesGrayBuckhoutCammackCiscomaniCrankConroyOrdenFleischmannHinesSteil
  5. Candidate Profile: Bushaw rejects pressure to step aside in Iowa’s 2nd District race

    In Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District race, candidate Dave Bushaw (labor advocate) is challenging Republican Joe Mitchell and Democrat Lindsay James.

    KCRG NewsJamesMitchell
More coverage 2
  1. RFK Jr.-aligned MAHA PAC spends big on Iowa governor's race

    The Hill reports that the RFK Jr.-aligned MAHA PAC is allocating substantial funds in support of political candidates, including Jace Yarbrough in Texas.

    The HillMitchellYarbrough
  2. President Trump planning two stops in Iowa ahead of Election Day

    The article notes that President Trump plans two campaign stops in Iowa ahead of Election Day, part of Republicans’ efforts to bolster competitive Iowa races and defend congressional control.

    KGAN Cedar Rapids NewsMitchell

Lindsay James, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLindsay James 59.5% 60.5% 58.5% 2.0 pts –
RJoe Mitchell 42.4% 40.5% 43.5% 3.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ia-02/embed.html" title="IA-02 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ia-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ia-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ia-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ia-02"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ia-02/card-landscape.png" alt="IA-02 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Joe Mitchell

Joe Mitchell

Republican

Joe Mitchell, a Republican business owner who served in the Iowa House of Representatives from 2019 to 2023, faces Democrat Lindsay James for Iowa's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026.

Born 1997
Lindsay James

Lindsay James

Democratic Member of the Iowa House of Representatives from the 71st district (since 2019)

Lindsay James, a Democrat and Presbyterian minister who has served in the Iowa House of Representatives since 2019, faces Republican Joe Mitchell for Iowa's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026.

Portland, Oregon

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.6K contracts

Iowa's 2nd District margin of victory

Mitchell, 1+ pts
33.5%
Mitchell, 2+ pts
25.5%
Mitchell, 5+ pts
13.5%
Mitchell, 8+ pts
6.3%
Mitchell, 11+ pts
7.9%
implied
Mitchell, 14+ pts
6.0%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi6.6K contracts

Iowa's 2nd District margin of victory

James, 1+ pts
47.5%
James, 4+ pts
36.5%
James, 7+ pts
25.5%
James, 10+ pts
13.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.1K traded

IA-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+
0.1%
Republican 9-12%
2.7%
Republican 6-9%
13.0%
Republican 3-6%
11.5%
Republican 0-3%
17.0%
Democrat 0-3%
21.9%
Democrat 3-6%
12.0%
Democrat 6-9%
9.0%
Democrat 9-12%
4.3%
Democrat 12%+
5.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$31.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Lindsay James: Counted · bid 60.0% / ask 61.0% · $29.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi39.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Lindsay James: Counted · bid 58.0% / ask 59.0% · $30.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Lindsay James

If the House member sworn in for IA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Iowa

  1. Iowa SenateR57%
  2. Iowa GovernorD89%
  3. IA-01 HouseD90%
  4. IA-03 HouseD79%
  5. IA-04 HouseR96%