House · 3 November 2026

IA-03 House 2026

79.1% DSarah Trone Garriott leads TruthIndex™Likely D

Polymarket: 81.5%
Kalshi: 79.0%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sarah Trone Garriott, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSarah Trone Garriott	79.1%		81.5%	79.0%	2.5 pts	–
RZach Nunn	20.3%		18.5%	20.5%	2.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Sarah Trone Garriott

Democratic Member of the Iowa Senate from the 14th district (since 2021)

Sarah Trone Garriott, a Democrat and Lutheran minister who has served in the Iowa Senate since 2021, challenges Republican incumbent Zach Nunn for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2026.

Minneapolis

Full candidate profile →

Zach Nunn

Republican U.S. Representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (since 2023)

Zach Nunn, a Republican and Air Force officer who has represented Iowa's 3rd congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democratic state senator Sarah Trone Garriott.

Born 1979 · Story City, Iowa

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.9K contracts

Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory

Nunn, 1+ pts		17.5%
Nunn, 4+ pts		12.6%
Nunn, 7+ pts		7.7%
Nunn, 10+ pts		4.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi6.7K contracts

Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory

Garriott, 2+ pts		68.5%
Garriott, 5+ pts		48.5%
Garriott, 8+ pts		30.5%
Garriott, 11+ pts		16.0%
Garriott, 14+ pts		8.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.8K traded

IA-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+		5.5%
Republican 3-6%		8.8%
Republican 0-3%		5.5%
Democrat 0-3%		12.0%
Democrat 3-6%		20.5%
Democrat 6-9%		22.9%
Democrat 9-12%		20.0%
Democrat 12-15%		7.3%
Democrat 15-18%		5.3%
Democrat 18%+		2.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$13.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sarah Trone Garriott: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 82.0% · $2.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi83.6K contracts traded