nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IA-04 House 2026

95.8% RChris McGowan leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
95.7%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IA-04 House.

  1. Trump holds remote rallies to support GOP candidates in close midterm races

    The article notes Donald Trump holding remote rallies to support GOP candidates in close Iowa midterm races, including backing Chris McGowan for Iowa’s 4th Congressional District (IA-04).

    KMTVMcGowan
  2. McGowan and Dawson call for immigration, FEMA reforms in second Iowa Fourth District debate - Worldnews.com

    Immigration: Both candidates advocated for immigration reform, with discussion of border policies and enforcement approaches.

    article.wn.comMcGowan
  3. McGowan, Dawson debate tariffs and Iran war | Iowa Campaigns and Elections

    The Iowa-04 race features Republican Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson in a civil debate about key issues.

    The Gazette (Cedar Rapids)McGowan
  4. Newark Parish Church hosts World Singing Day event

    Newark Parish Church hosted a World Singing Day event, with coverage photo credited to David Dawson (Iliffe Media).

    Newark AdvertiserDawson
  5. National Theatre Connections: Manx Teens Audition for London Stage! (2026)

    The National Theatre Connections program on the Isle of Man invites Manx teens to audition for a London-stage opportunity, with development and training emphasized.

    bluvand.comDawson
More coverage 1
  1. Landowner group says property rights is still a major election issue

    The article reports that property rights remain a major election issue in the race for Iowa’s 4th Congressional District.

    News from the StatesMcGowanAlso in KCRG News

Chris McGowan, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RChris McGowan 95.8% 96.0% 95.7% 0.3 pts –
DDavid Dawson 4.4% 4.5% 3.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chris McGowan

Republican

Chris McGowan, a Republican and president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, is his party's nominee for Iowa's open 4th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat David Dawson.

David Dawson

David Dawson

Democratic

David Dawson, a Democrat, Woodbury County prosecutor and former Iowa state representative, faces Republican Chris McGowan for Iowa's open 4th congressional district seat in 2026.

Born 1973 · Cherokee, Iowa

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.0K contracts

Iowa's 4th District margin of victory

McGowan, 6+ pts
96.5%
McGowan, 9+ pts
95.7%
McGowan, 12+ pts
85.0%
implied
McGowan, 15+ pts
75.5%
McGowan, 18+ pts
64.5%
McGowan, 21+ pts
47.5%
McGowan, 24+ pts
37.0%
McGowan, 27+ pts
23.5%
McGowan, 30+ pts
13.5%
McGowan, 33+ pts
5.8%
McGowan, 36+ pts
3.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.2K traded

IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
1.5%
Republican 0-5%
3.0%
Republican 5-10%
5.2%
Republican 10-15%
23.4%
Republican 15-20%
25.0%
Republican 20-25%
31.0%
Republican 25-30%
–
Republican 30-35%
4.8%
Republican 35%+
4.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$56.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Chris McGowan: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 97.0% · $654 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Chris McGowan: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 97.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Chris McGowan

If the House member sworn in for IA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Iowa

  1. Iowa SenateR57%
  2. Iowa GovernorD89%
  3. IA-01 HouseD90%
  4. IA-02 HouseD59%
  5. IA-03 HouseD79%