nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MD-04 House 2026

98.3% DGlenn Ivey leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.5%
Kalshi
99.0%
Spread
1.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MD-04 House.

  1. Maryland election preview, 2026
    ballotpedia.orgMcDermottChaffee
  2. Maryland Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Leaders Today

    The table below shows the leading candidate in each race, the current odds on Kalshi and whether they are an incumbent.

    ForbesMcDermott

Glenn Ivey, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DGlenn Ivey 98.3% 97.5% 99.0% 1.4 pts –
RGeorge McDermott 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.9 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

George McDermott

Republican

George McDermott, a Republican entrepreneur and perennial candidate, is his party's nominee for Maryland's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Glenn Ivey in the November 3 general election.

Glenn Ivey

Glenn Ivey

Democratic U.S. Representative for Maryland's 4th congressional district (since 2023)

Glenn Ivey, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 4th congressional district since 2023 and earlier served as Prince George's County state's attorney, faces Republican George McDermott in the 2026 election for the seat.

Born 1961 · Chelsea, Massachusetts

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.2K contracts

Maryland's 4th District margin of victory

Ivey, 64+ pts
95.5%
Ivey, 67+ pts
89.3%
Ivey, 70+ pts
83.5%
Ivey, 73+ pts
75.5%
Ivey, 76+ pts
65.5%
Ivey, 79+ pts
51.5%
Ivey, 82+ pts
34.0%
Ivey, 85+ pts
21.5%
Ivey, 88+ pts
8.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$23.7K traded

MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
implied
Democrat 0-50%
0.5%
implied
Democrat 50-60%
0.1%
implied
Democrat 60-65%
0.1%
implied
Democrat 65-70%
12.6%
Democrat 70-75%
10.4%
Democrat 75-80%
17.0%
Democrat 80-85%
28.5%
Democrat 85-90%
–
Democrat 90%+
5.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$48.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Glenn Ivey: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 97.9% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi830 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Glenn Ivey: Counted · bid 98.1% / ask 99.8% · $1.9K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Glenn Ivey

If the House member sworn in for MD-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maryland

  1. Maryland GovernorD97%
  2. MD-01 HouseR87%
  3. MD-02 HouseD96%
  4. MD-03 HouseD96%
  5. MD-05 HouseD96%
  6. MD-06 HouseD96%
  7. MD-07 HouseD97%
  8. MD-08 HouseD97%