US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for CO-02 House.
The article describes a November 3 election event in Edwards featuring a canine costume contest and a Democratic campaign bus tour. The statewide bus tour includes prominent Colorado Democrats such as U.S. Rep.
NeguseNeguse, 42, is all but assured to win his fifth term in Congress in the deep-blue 2nd Congressional District, which includes Boulder and Fort Collins along the Front Range, as well as Vail, Steamboat Springs, Granby and…
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
JoyceNeguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianU.S. Rep. Joe Neguse joined Colorado Democrats in Greeley to kick off a six-day statewide bus tour ahead of elections.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJoe Neguse | 98.1% | 98.0% | 98.1% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RKelley Dennison | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Joe Neguse, a Democrat who has represented Colorado's 2nd congressional district since 2019 and serves as House assistant Democratic leader, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Kelley Dennison, a business owner and licensed massage therapist.
Kelley Dennison, a Republican business owner and licensed massage therapist, is the Republican nominee for Colorado's 2nd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Joe Neguse in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory
| Neguse, 34+ pts | 91.9% | |
| Neguse, 37+ pts | 91.9% | |
| Neguse, 40+ pts | 88.9% | |
| Neguse, 43+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Neguse, 46+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Neguse, 49+ pts | 50.0% | |
| Neguse, 52+ pts | 31.0% | |
| Neguse, 55+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Neguse, 58+ pts | 8.6% |
CO-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-20% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 20-30% | 0.6% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 7.8% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 22.3% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 33.5% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 60%+ | 17.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Joe Neguse: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.5% · $67 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Joe Neguse: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.7% · $751 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Joe Neguse
If the House member sworn in for CO-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
