nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MS-01 House 2026

95.8% RTrent Kelly leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
95.6%
Spread
0.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MS-01 House.

  1. House Speaker Mike Johnson calls RGV Congressional seats as key to House majority

    The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.

    krgv.comBaezSimsMintonJr.JohnsonReynolds
  2. Cliff Winkel named GOP nominee for Ohio's 52nd District

    Cliff Winkel has been chosen by Republicans to be the nominee for Ohio’s 52nd House District (HD52) to run against Democrat Mike Baker.

    pro.stateaffairs.comJohnson
  3. Potential Upset Brewing In Southern Minnesota's US House Race

    Brad Finstad (R) faces a tightening race in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District.

    PatchJohnsonJohnsonFinstad
  4. Redrawing the South | Jeffrey Toobin

    The article discusses how changes prompted by the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision are fueling GOP redistricting in Mississippi, with a focus on Rep. Bennie G.

    nybooks.comJohnsonThompson

Trent Kelly, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RTrent Kelly 95.8% 96.0% 95.6% 0.4 pts –
DCliff Johnson 3.3% 4.0% 3.3% 0.8 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Cliff Johnson

Democratic

Cliff Johnson, director of the MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Mississippi School of Law, is the Democratic nominee for Mississippi's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Trent Kelly.

Trent Kelly

Trent Kelly

Republican U.S. Representative for Mississippi's 1st congressional district (since 2015)

Trent Kelly, a Republican and retired Mississippi National Guard major general who has represented Mississippi's 1st congressional district since 2015, faces Democrat Cliff Johnson, director of the MacArthur Justice Center, in 2026.

Born 1966 · Union, Mississippi

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi213 contracts

Mississippi's 1st District margin of victory

Kelly, 18+ pts
94.0%
Kelly, 21+ pts
83.5%
Kelly, 24+ pts
71.5%
Kelly, 27+ pts
60.5%
Kelly, 30+ pts
49.5%
Kelly, 33+ pts
39.5%
Kelly, 36+ pts
28.5%
Kelly, 39+ pts
19.5%
Kelly, 42+ pts
9.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$117.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Trent Kelly: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 97.0% · $24.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi17.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Trent Kelly: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.5% · $25.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Trent Kelly

If the House member sworn in for MS-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Mississippi

  1. Mississippi SenateR90%
  2. MS-02 HouseD98%
  3. MS-03 HouseR97%
  4. MS-04 HouseR96%