House · 3 November 2026

MS-02 House 2026

97.7% DBennie Thompson leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.2%
Kalshi: 97.9%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MS-02 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Redrawing the South | Jeffrey Toobin

The article discusses how changes prompted by the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision are fueling GOP redistricting in Mississippi, with a focus on Rep. Bennie G.

nybooks.comYesterdayJohnson

Thompson

Yesterday
What We Lost When We Lost the Voting Rights Act
The piece reflects on the impact of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) on Bennie Thompson, a Mississippi resident from Bolton, near Jackson.

substack.nybooks.comYesterdayThompson
Wednesday, Oct 14
Why Anthropic Is Asking for a Rehearing En Banc
The piece explains why Anthropic seeks a rehearing en banc on a legal question related to government authority modeled after DOD authority from 2011 (specifically, the authority linked to malicious actors).

lawfaremedia.orgYesterdayThompson
These Yazoo City families overcome hurdles to own their homes
U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson (MS-02) helped secure a $3 million U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development grant to support homeownership efforts in Yazoo City, including projects like Roberts Estates, helping local…

desotocountynews.comYesterdayThompson
ICE resists watchdog advice to automate body camera activation
Bennie Thompson (D-Miss., MS-02), ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, plans to introduce legislation to require automatic activation of DHS body-worn cameras, including ICE.

The HillYesterdayThompson

Bennie Thompson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DBennie Thompson	97.7%		97.2%	97.9%	0.7 pts	–
RRon Eller	2.1%		2.1%	2.1%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ms-02/embed.html" title="MS-02 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ms-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ms-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ms-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ms-02"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ms-02/card-landscape.png" alt="MS-02 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Bennie Thompson

Democratic U.S. Representative for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district (since 1993)

Bennie Thompson, a Democrat who has represented Mississippi's 2nd congressional district since 1993 and twice chaired the House Homeland Security Committee, faces Republican Ron Eller, a physician assistant, in his 2026 re-election bid.

Born 1948 · Bolton, Mississippi

Full candidate profile →

Ron Eller

Republican

Ron Eller, a physician assistant and the Republican nominee for the seat in 2024, is again his party's nominee for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Bennie Thompson.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.3K contracts

Mississippi's 2nd District margin of victory

Thompson, 15+ pts		91.0%
Thompson, 18+ pts		83.0%
Thompson, 21+ pts		75.5%
Thompson, 24+ pts		67.5%
Thompson, 27+ pts		61.5%
Thompson, 30+ pts		45.5%
Thompson, 33+ pts		34.0%
Thompson, 36+ pts		22.5%
Thompson, 39+ pts		10.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$45.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Bennie Thompson: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 98.0% · $553 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi38.4K contracts traded