US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MS-04 House.
The article profiles Todd Schaefer, a retired Navy veteran and realtor, who is running for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida’s 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election.
The article “Educate yourself and vote” highlights several Delaware House races, including District 4 in the Millsboro area where Democrat Gregg Lindner faces Republican Dan Zitofsky for the seat being vacated by…
IIIThe page is a general election overview for Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (not Georgia’s GA-04). It profiles incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga, who is seeking re-election to a eighth term.
The page titled “Odysseus and Democrats” on Spot On Mississippi (Hub City Spokes) appears to be a political commentary piece.
IIIThe article discusses election day guidance about two weeks away in Mississippi, noting that the ballot is relatively slim but includes U.S.
IIINo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMike Ezell | 96.3% | 95.8% | 97.5% | 1.7 pts | – | |
| DJeffrey Hulum III | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jeffrey Hulum III, a Democrat who has represented the 119th district in the Mississippi House of Representatives since 2022, is his party's nominee for Mississippi's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Mike Ezell.
Mike Ezell, a Republican former Jackson County sheriff who has represented Mississippi's 4th congressional district since 2023, faces Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III, a member of the Mississippi House of Representatives, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Mississippi's 4th District margin of victory
| Ezell, 25+ pts | 89.6% | |
| Ezell, 28+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Ezell, 31+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Ezell, 34+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Ezell, 37+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Ezell, 40+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Ezell, 43+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Ezell, 46+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Ezell, 49+ pts | 8.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Mike Ezell: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.9% · $944 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mike Ezell: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 99.4% · $292 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Ezell
If the House member sworn in for MS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
