MS-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 98.0%
- Kalshi
- 97.4%
- Spread
- 0.6 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.4
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Michael Guest, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMichael Guest | 97.5% | 98.0% | 97.4% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| DMichael Chiaradio | 1.1% Kalshi only |
– | 1.1% | – | – |
Share this race
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
Post on X
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Embed the live card
Candidates & Background
Michael Chiaradio
Michael Chiaradio, a regenerative farmer, is the Democratic nominee for Mississippi's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 election, facing Republican incumbent Michael Guest on November 3.
Michael Guest
Michael Guest, a Republican who has represented Mississippi's 3rd congressional district since 2019 and chairs the House Ethics Committee, faces Democrat Michael Chiaradio, a regenerative farmer, in the November 3, 2026, general election.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi19 contracts
Mississippi's 3rd District margin of victory
| Guest, 11+ pts | 92.1% | |
| Guest, 14+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Guest, 17+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Guest, 20+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Guest, 23+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Guest, 26+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Guest, 29+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Guest, 32+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Guest, 35+ pts | 9.9% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$62.8K traded
Prices which party wins.
Michael Guest: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 98.9% · $249 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi4.0K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Michael Guest: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.3% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Michael Guest
If the House member sworn in for MS-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Mississippi
- Mississippi SenateR90%
- MS-01 HouseR96%
- MS-02 HouseD98%
- MS-04 HouseR96%