nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NE-01 House 2026

82.1% RMike Flood leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
82.5%
Kalshi
82.0%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NE-01 House.

Mike Flood, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi
RMike Flood 82.1% 82.5% 82.0% 0.5 pts –
DChris Backemeyer 18.4% 18.0% 18.5% 0.5 pts –
Which candidate wins · Kalshi
IAustin Ahlman 1.0%
implied
 – – – –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chris Backemeyer

Democratic

Chris Backemeyer, a Democrat, won his party's 2026 primary for Nebraska's 1st congressional district and faces Republican incumbent Mike Flood, who has held the seat since 2022, in the November general election.

Mike Flood

Mike Flood

Republican U.S. Representative for Nebraska's 1st congressional district (since 2022)

Mike Flood, a Republican who has represented Nebraska's 1st congressional district since 2022 and earlier served as speaker of the Nebraska Legislature, faces Democrat Chris Backemeyer in his 2026 bid for reelection.

Born 1975 · Omaha, Nebraska

Austin Ahlman

Independent

Austin Ahlman is a Independent candidate for the US House in Nebraska's 1st congressional district (NE-01) in 2026.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.0K contracts

Nebraska's 1st District margin of victory

Flood, 3+ pts
69.5%
Flood, 6+ pts
56.0%
Flood, 9+ pts
41.5%
Flood, 12+ pts
27.5%
Flood, 15+ pts
17.5%
Flood, 18+ pts
8.9%
Flood, 21+ pts
4.5%
Flood, 24+ pts
6.3%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.3K traded

NE-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+
3.3%
Republican 18-21%
3.5%
Republican 15-18%
3.6%
Republican 12-15%
–
Republican 9-12%
19.5%
Republican 6-9%
20.5%
Republican 3-6%
19.4%
Republican 0-3%
–
Democrat 0-3%
8.5%
Democrat 3%+
5.2%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Flood: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 83.0% · $4.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi29.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Flood: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 83.0% · $28.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Mike Flood

If the House member sworn in for NE-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Nebraska

  1. Nebraska SenateR73%
  2. Nebraska GovernorR90%
  3. NE-02 HouseD94%
  4. NE-03 HouseR97%