US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NE-02 House.
Denise Powell, the Democratic candidate for Nebraska’s 2nd District (NE-02) House seat, discussed local law enforcement’s collaboration with ICE during a debate with Republican Brinker Harding.
Denise Powell has won all three debates in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district against MAGA Republican Brinker Harding, according to a DCCC statement.
Health care/Social Security: Harding urges bipartisan negotiations now to address program finances, while he would not support changes that harm current beneficiaries.
Brinker Harding is one of three candidates in the final debate for Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (Rep. Don Bacon’s seat).
The NE-02 debate circuit featured Democrat Denise Powell (and Republican Brinker Harding) in three live debates hosted by KETV, Nebraska Public Media, and WOWT in October.
In a Massachusetts-like contest for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District seat, Democratic challenger Denise Powell and Republican Brinker Harding sparred in the second of three debates to replace Rep. Don Bacon.
Brinker Harding is a Republican candidate in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District race.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDenise Powell | 94.2% | 95.0% | 94.2% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RBrinker Harding | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 2.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Brinker Harding, a Republican who has served on the Omaha City Council from the 6th district since 2017, is his party's nominee for Nebraska's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Denise Powell.
Denise Powell, a Democrat who co-founded a candidate training group, is her party's nominee for Nebraska's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilor.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Nebraska's 2nd District margin of victory
| Powell, 1+ pts | 89.9% | |
| Powell, 3+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Powell, 6+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Powell, 9+ pts | 52.5% | |
| Powell, 12+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Powell, 15+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Powell, 18+ pts | 12.7% | |
| Powell, 21+ pts | 5.3% |
NE-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 5%+ | 0.6% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.1% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 7.6% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 14.8% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 18.0% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 25%+ | 4.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Denise Powell: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $571 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Denise Powell: Counted · bid 93.7% / ask 94.7% · $71.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Denise Powell
If the House member sworn in for NE-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
