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Pillen signs JD Vance's Pledge to Protect Americans from Fraud
LINCOLN, Neb. (KLKN): On Oct. 15, Gov. Jim Pillen signed onto Vice President JD Vance’s Pledge to Protect Americans from Fraud.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
NE-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 97.2%
- Kalshi
- 98.2%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −1.4
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for NE-03 House.
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Rep. Adrian Smith introduces bill to penalize colleges that allow athletes with gambling violations to compete
Representative Adrian Smith (NE-03) has introduced legislation to penalize colleges that allow student-athletes with gambling violations to compete.
central.newschannelnebraska.com
Smith -
Incumbent U.S. Reps. Flood and Smith deserve another term in Congress | Commentary
The Norfolk Daily News opinion piece argues in favor of re-electing incumbent U.S. Representatives Mike Flood (NE-01) and Adrian Smith (NE-03).
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House Republicans Race for Ways and Means Chair
The race for the Republican chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee is already under way, with two main contenders: Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL).
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IL Corn Thanks Illinois Delegation for Supporting Biofuel Demand
The Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA) acknowledges Illinois lawmakers who supported biofuel policy, including Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE).
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Ways & Means next Republican gavel race underway
Smith has met with multiple House GOP Steering Committee members to discuss a future bid for the gavel, signaling a serious long-term objective.
Punchbowl NewsSmith
No story this week names this candidate.
Adrian Smith, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAdrian Smith | 97.4% | 97.2% | 98.2% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DBecky Stille | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Adrian Smith
Republican U.S. Representative for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district (since 2007)
Adrian Smith, a Republican who has represented Nebraska's 3rd congressional district since 2007 and chairs the Ways and Means trade subcommittee, faces Democrat Becky Stille in his 2026 bid for reelection.
Becky Stille
Democratic
Becky Stille is the Democratic nominee for Nebraska's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Adrian Smith, who was re-elected to the seat with 80.4% of the vote in 2024.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi2.8K contracts
Nebraska's 3rd District margin of victory
| Smith, 36+ pts | 94.2% | |
| Smith, 39+ pts | 86.0% implied | |
| Smith, 42+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Smith, 45+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Smith, 48+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Smith, 51+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Smith, 54+ pts | 16.0% | |
| Smith, 57+ pts | 5.2% | |
| Smith, 60+ pts | 5.7% implied |
Polymarket$23.5K traded
NE-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.2% | |
| Republican 0-25% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 25-35% | 5.6% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 23.0% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 23.0% | |
| Republican 55-60% | – | |
| Republican 60-65% | 1.3% | |
| Republican 65%+ | 0.4% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$16.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
Adrian Smith: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 98.2% · $1.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi3.1K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Adrian Smith: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.7% · $651 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Adrian Smith
If the House member sworn in for NE-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Nebraska
- Nebraska SenateR73%
- Nebraska GovernorR90%
- NE-01 HouseR82%
- NE-02 HouseD94%