nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

UT-03 House 2026

96.7% RCeleste Maloy leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.5%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for UT-03 House.

  1. Cody Whipple does things 'my way.' Can the small-town rancher flip Nevada's bluest House seat? - Mesa Valleys Progress

    Summary focused on the user’s query: David Flippo NV-02 House

    mvprogress.comWhippleBuckFlippoMaloy
  2. Udell campaign: Statement in support of Crowley

    The page reports that Madison representative Randy Udell (D-47th District) issued a statement endorsing David Crowley for Wisconsin’s next governor, advocating Crowley as the candidate for the County Executive position.

    pro.stateaffairs.comUdell
  3. Maloy and Melling lay out priorities in House District 52 race

    Topic: The Utah District 52 race (Lehi area) between incumbent Rep. Cory Maloy and challenger Nicole Melling.

    utahledger.comUdell
  4. Learn about Utah House District 52 candidates

    The article presents candidate profiles for Utah House District 52, featuring incumbent Rep. Cory Maloy and challenger Nicole Melling, in a side-by-side Q&A format.

    lehifreepress.comUdellLarsen
  5. Utah House Race Ratings 2026: All 10 Changes Favor Democrats

    The article reports a October 2026 update to Utah Political Watch’s House race ratings.

    utahpolitics.newsUdellLarsenMcAdams
More coverage 2
  1. CIK BROJI PREOSTALE GLASOVE! Evo koliko imaju Cvijanovićeva, Božović, Minić i Blanuša

    Focus: Ongoing counting of absentee, mobile teams, and diplomatic-consular posts (DKP) in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    banjaluka-24.comEllzeyMaloySherman
  2. Lobisti Republike Srpske prijavili Dodikov sastanak s američkom kongresmenkom Celeste Maloy: Perpetuum

    The article reports that the lobbying firm Stokes Strategies filed a disclosure with the U.S. Department of Justice alleging that Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and Željka Cvijanović met with U.S.

    advance.hrMaloy

Celeste Maloy, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RCeleste Maloy 96.7% 96.5% 96.8% 0.3 pts –
DKent Udell 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Celeste Maloy

Celeste Maloy

Republican U.S. Representative for Utah's 2nd congressional district (since 2023)

Celeste Maloy, a Republican who has represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2023, is her party's nominee for the redrawn 3rd district in 2026 against Democrat Kent Udell.

Born 1981 · Cedar City, Utah

Kent Udell

Democratic

Kent Udell, a Democrat and engineer who is a cousin of former U.S. Interior Secretary Stewart Udall, faces Republican incumbent Celeste Maloy in the 2026 election for Utah's redrawn 3rd congressional district.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi905 contracts

Utah's 3rd District margin of victory

Maloy, 19+ pts
94.2%
Maloy, 22+ pts
89.0%
Maloy, 25+ pts
80.5%
Maloy, 28+ pts
69.5%
Maloy, 31+ pts
55.5%
Maloy, 34+ pts
40.5%
Maloy, 37+ pts
27.5%
Maloy, 40+ pts
17.0%
Maloy, 43+ pts
7.9%
Maloy, 46+ pts
4.0%
Maloy, 49+ pts
5.5%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$26.3K traded

UT-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.5%
Republican 0-10%
1.1%
Republican 10-20%
14.1%
Republican 20-25%
20.7%
Republican 25-30%
17.5%
Republican 30-35%
16.5%
Republican 35-40%
15.0%
Republican 40-45%
13.7%
Republican 45-50%
2.4%
Republican 50%+
2.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$17.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Celeste Maloy: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 98.3% · $558 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi10.8K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Celeste Maloy: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 98.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Celeste Maloy

If the House member sworn in for UT-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Utah

  1. UT-01 HouseD97%
  2. UT-02 HouseR95%
  3. UT-04 HouseR95%