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Utah's Congressional Map: Federal Court Declines to Block, But Questions Remain (2026)
The 10th Circuit unanimously declined to block Utah’s 2026 congressional map from use in the midterms, aligning with the Utah Supreme Court.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
UT-04 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.2%
- Kalshi
- 96.4%
- Spread
- 1.2 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −1.1
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for UT-04 House.
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Long odds still favor incumbent Republican in hotly contested race in Utah's 2nd District – KVNU – News for Northern Utah and Southern Idaho
The KVNU article discusses the U.S. House race in Utah’s 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Blake Moore is still favored to win despite a lackluster debate performance.
-
Learn about Utah House District 52 candidates
The article presents candidate profiles for Utah House District 52, featuring incumbent Rep. Cory Maloy and challenger Nicole Melling, in a side-by-side Q&A format.
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Utah House Race Ratings 2026: All 10 Changes Favor Democrats
The article reports a October 2026 update to Utah Political Watch’s House race ratings.
-
Katy Hall focuses on listening to constituents, nursing background in campaign for House District 11 seat
The provided article focuses on Katy Hall, a Republican candidate for Utah House District 11, not Jonny Larsen or Utah House District 04.
No story this week names this candidate.
Mike Kennedy, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMike Kennedy | 95.3% | 95.2% | 96.4% | 1.2 pts | – | |
| DJonny Larsen | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Jonny Larsen
Democratic
Jonny Larsen, a Democrat and U.S. Marine Corps veteran, faces Republican Mike Kennedy, the incumbent representative for the 3rd district, in the 2026 election for Utah's redrawn 4th congressional district.
Mike Kennedy
Republican U.S. Representative for Utah's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)
Mike Kennedy, a Republican physician and attorney who has represented Utah's 3rd congressional district since 2025, is his party's nominee for the redrawn 4th district in 2026 against Democrat Jonny Larsen.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi66 contracts
Utah's 4th District margin of victory
| Kennedy, 13+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Kennedy, 16+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Kennedy, 19+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Kennedy, 22+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Kennedy, 25+ pts | 52.5% | |
| Kennedy, 28+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Kennedy, 31+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Kennedy, 34+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Kennedy, 37+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Kennedy, 40+ pts | 11.8% |
Polymarket$23.5K traded
UT-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.4% | |
| Republican 0-5% | – | |
| Republican 5-15% | 19.8% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 24.3% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 5.1% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 2.4% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 1.8% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 2.8% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$60.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
Mike Kennedy: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 95.8% · $8.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi5.2K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Mike Kennedy: Counted · bid 95.4% / ask 97.4% · $401 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Kennedy
If the House member sworn in for UT-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Utah
- UT-01 HouseD97%
- UT-02 HouseR95%
- UT-03 HouseR97%