House · 3 November 2026

UT-02 House 2026

94.6% RBlake Moore leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 95.0%
Spread: 0.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for UT-02 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

ROC Joins the Age Verification Providers Association, Supporting Global Trade Policies for Age Assurance

Blake Moore is quoted commenting on ROC joining the Age Verification Providers Association (AVPA).

markets.businessinsider.comYesterday

MooreAlso in marketminute.com

Wednesday, Oct 14
2026-10-15 | ROC Joins the Age Verification Providers Association, Supporting Global Trade Policies for Age Assurance | NDAQ:ROC
Blake Moore is cited in ROC’s press release announcing ROC’s joining the Age Verification Providers Association (AVPA).

stockhouse.comYesterdayMoore
ROC Joins the Age Verification Providers Association,
Blake Moore, ROC’s Chief Operating Officer, says that ROC joining the Age Verification Providers Association (AVPA) strengthens their ability to promote secure, privacy-conscious age assurance.

GlobeNewsWireYesterdayMoore
Cure detalji: RS dala pola miliona dolara američkim lobistima!
Blake Moore (UT-02) is a Republican U.S. Representative from Utah who, along with colleagues John Curtis and Celeste Maloy, met with RS (Republika Srpska) officials Milorad Dodik and Željka Cvijanović.

novi.baYesterdayMoore

Blake Moore, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBlake Moore	94.6%		94.5%	95.0%	0.5 pts	–
DPeter Crosby	4.8%		5.1%	4.3%	0.8 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ut-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ut-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Blake Moore

Republican U.S. Representative for Utah's 1st congressional district (since 2021)

Blake Moore, a Republican who has represented Utah's 1st congressional district since 2021 and serves as vice chair of the House Republican Conference, runs in the redrawn 2nd district in 2026 against Democrat Peter Crosby.

Born 1980 · Ogden, Utah

Full candidate profile →

Peter Crosby

Democratic

Peter Crosby, a Democratic project manager, is the Democratic nominee for Utah's redrawn 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Blake Moore, the U.S. representative for the 1st district.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi385 contracts

Utah's 2nd District margin of victory

Moore, 6+ pts		91.2%
Moore, 9+ pts		84.5%
Moore, 12+ pts		76.5%
Moore, 15+ pts		66.5%
Moore, 18+ pts		53.5%
Moore, 21+ pts		40.5%
Moore, 24+ pts		28.5%
Moore, 27+ pts		18.5%
Moore, 30+ pts		10.8%
Moore, 33+ pts		5.5%
Moore, 36+ pts		3.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.6K traded

UT-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		2.4%
Republican 0-5%		–
Republican 5-15%		17.3%
Republican 15-20%		21.5%
Republican 20-25%		25.5%
Republican 25-30%		15.0%
Republican 30-35%		5.2%
Republican 35-40%		4.0%
Republican 40-45%		6.0%
Republican 45%+		1.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$31.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Blake Moore: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $8.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi13.2K contracts traded