nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

UT-01 House 2026

96.6% DBen McAdams leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.4%
Kalshi
96.9%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for UT-01 House.

  1. Red state judge chooses new congressional map in fight that could reshape House control - Meridian Magazine Meridian Magazine

    A Utah district judge, in a ruling announced November 11, 2025, rejected the Utah GOP-led legislature’s proposed congressional map and approved an alternate map that creates a Democratic-leaning district ahead of the…

    latterdaysaintmag.comMcAdams
  2. Utah House Race Ratings 2026: All 10 Changes Favor Democrats

    The article reports a October 2026 update to Utah Political Watch’s House race ratings.

    utahpolitics.newsUdellLarsenMcAdams
  3. What is expected to happen in the upcoming midterms?

    The Deseret News opinion piece warns Utah Republicans to be wary of the 1st Congressional District (UT-01) race, centered on Ben McAdams.

    Deseret NewsMcAdamsAlso in europesays.com

Ben McAdams, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DBen McAdams 96.6% 96.4% 96.9% 0.5 pts –
RRiley Owen 3.7% 3.8% 1.8% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Ben McAdams

Ben McAdams

Democratic

Ben McAdams, a Democrat who represented Utah's 4th congressional district from 2019 to 2021 and earlier served as mayor of Salt Lake County, faces Republican Riley Owen for Utah's redrawn 1st district in 2026.

Born 1974 · West Bountiful, Utah

Riley Owen

Republican

Riley Owen, a Republican and former White House policy analyst, is the Republican nominee for Utah's redrawn 1st congressional district in 2026 against Democrat Ben McAdams, a former U.S. representative.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

Utah's 1st District margin of victory

McAdams, 14+ pts
93.6%
implied
McAdams, 17+ pts
94.5%
McAdams, 20+ pts
88.9%
McAdams, 23+ pts
85.0%
McAdams, 26+ pts
76.5%
McAdams, 29+ pts
65.5%
McAdams, 32+ pts
51.5%
McAdams, 35+ pts
36.5%
McAdams, 38+ pts
22.5%
McAdams, 41+ pts
12.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$8.7K traded

UT-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
3.5%
Democrat 0-10%
4.8%
Democrat 10-15%
3.6%
Democrat 15-20%
4.3%
Democrat 20-25%
14.0%
Democrat 25-30%
20.0%
Democrat 30-35%
21.0%
Democrat 35-40%
21.0%
Democrat 40%+
21.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$52.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ben McAdams: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 96.7% · $971 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi12.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ben McAdams: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 98.7% · $965 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ben McAdams

If the House member sworn in for UT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Utah

  1. UT-02 HouseR95%
  2. UT-03 HouseR97%
  3. UT-04 HouseR95%