Updated Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Mayor · 3 November 2026

Oakland Mayor 2026

92.0% Barbara Lee leads TruthIndex™Other leader
Polymarket
92.0%
Kalshi
92.0%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
−0.4
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Oakland Mayor.

  1. Oakland: Barbara Lee Facing 3 Candidates In Nov. 3 Mayoral Election

    Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee is facing three opponents in the Nov. 3 election who have never held political office before -- community activist Brenda Grisham, serial candidate Mindy Pechenuk and former bank executive…

    SFGateLee
  2. Costco eyes new warehouse as Australia expansion grows

    Barbara Lee is referenced as the Oakland mayor describing an Exclusive Negotiation Agreement aimed at a transformative economic development project.

    News.com.auLee
  3. Oakland Corruption Trial Begins After Jury Is Seated

    The federal corruption trial against former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao began after jurors were seated. The trial is expected to last about six weeks, ending shortly before Thanksgiving.

    radioseoul1650.comGrisham
  4. Former Thao Staffer Says Office Was Asked About Alleged Child Sex Trafficking on Vietnam Trip

    The article covers testimony from Leigh Hanson, former chief of staff to Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, during Thao’s federal corruption trial.

    kqed.orgGrisham
  5. Prosecutor paints dirty picture of bribery; defense calls it "fiction"

    The article covers opening arguments in the corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and three co-conspirators, accused by the DOJ of taking bribes to benefit local business interests (notably the Duong…

    asamnews.comGrisham
More coverage 8
  1. Ex-Oakland mayor betrayed oath of office by taking bribes, feds say

    The article covers the corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.

    KTVU Fox 2Grisham
  2. Testimony begins in Sheng Thao corruption trial

    The article covers the federal corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.

    KNTVGrisham
  3. Thao trial opens with fiery allegations, strenuous disavowals

    The trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao opened with prosecutors portraying her as a greedy politician who allegedly prioritized personal monetary interests.

    OaklandsideGrisham
  4. Building a Safer, Stronger Oakland : Bay Area Council

    The Bay Area Council hosted a discussion in Oakland about Measure EE, which aims to clarify authority between the Mayor and City Council and strengthen the Mayor’s management of city operations while preserving the…

    bayareacouncil.orgGrishamLee
  5. Opening statements begin in former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao trial on corruption charges - CBS San Francisco

    The article covers opening statements in the federal corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and three associates (boyfriend Andre Jones and the Duong family), accusing them of a pay-to-play scheme to…

    CBS NewsGrisham
  6. ‘Politics as Profit’ or ‘Pure Fiction’: Bribery Trial of Ex-Oakland Mayor Kicks Off

    Summary tailored to your query: The article covers the federal bribery trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, not Brenda Grisham.

    kqed.orgGrisham
  7. Opening statements set to begin in Sheng Thao corruption trial

    The article reports that opening statements began in the federal corruption trial of former Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.

    KNTVGrisham
  8. Corruption Trial Begins for Former Oakland Mayor and City Contractors

    Barbara Lee, who became Oakland’s mayor last year, is referenced in the context of ongoing corruption cases involving former Oakland mayor and city contractors.

    dnyuz.comLee

Barbara Lee, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
Barbara Lee 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 0.0 pts −0.4
Brenda Grisham 6.3% 6.5% 6.0% 0.5 pts +0.3

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<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/mayor/oakland/embed.html" title="Oakland Mayor: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/mayor/oakland/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=mayor-oakland">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/mayor/oakland/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=mayor-oakland"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/mayor/oakland/card-landscape.png" alt="Oakland Mayor: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Barbara Lee

Barbara Lee

Mayor of Oakland (since 2025)

Barbara Lee, mayor of Oakland since 2025 and a member of the U.S. House from 1998 to 2025, has declared a bid for reelection as mayor in 2026.

Born 1946 · El Paso, Texas

Community advocate who has declared a candidacy for mayor of Oakland in the November 3, 2026, election; incumbent Barbara Lee, who won a 2025 special election, has said she will seek reelection.

Each venue's market

Polymarket$2.0K traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Barbara Lee: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 93.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts

The 2026 Oakland mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Oakland, California. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Oakland.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.2K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Barbara Lee: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 94.0% · $1.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Barbara Lee

If Barbara Lee wins the 2026 Oakland mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi