Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026 · Special election

Ohio Senate (special) 2026

64.0% DSherrod Brown leads TruthIndex™Lean D
Polymarket
64.5%
Kalshi
63.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+2.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Ohio Senate (special).

  1. Husted, Brown vie for Ohio Senate seat in special election | Elections

    The special U.S. Senate race to decide who will serve the remaining two years of the term that now Vice President J.D.

    Cleveland Jewish NewsBrownHusted
  2. Brown outraises Husted in final fundraising reports

    WASHINGTON, D.C.: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is significantly out-raising Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio’s high-profile Senate race, according to new campaign finance reports.

    WorcesterBrown
  3. Republicans fight to hold on to Ohio as Democrats eye a flipped Senate seat

    Trump has been making the rounds in red states, campaigning for Republicans trying to hang on to House and Senate seats in a competitive homestretch. He has already visited Ohio twice in October, where Republican Sen.

    WBFFHustedAlso in TND
  4. Brown, Husted make pitches on affordability, data centers and more in U.S. Senate race | Local

    Speaking at a recent campaign event in Columbus, Brown said Ohioans are hurting because the “system is rigged” now more than ever before, and at the same time corporate profits and executive compensation have soared.

    Dayton Daily NewsBrownHusted
  5. Election 2026 Ohio Senate |

    Email notifications are only sent once a day, and only if there are new matching items.

    WFMJ -YoungstownBrown
More coverage 8
  1. This career politician has failed Ohioans. That's why The Dispatch endorses his rival for Senate

    The Columbus Dispatch endorsement in Ohio's U.S. Senate race between Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown.

    Columbus DispatchHusted
  2. Election 2026 Ohio

    Democratic Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, a former three-term U.S. senator, speaks at a campaign event in Akron, Ohio, on July 16, 2026.

    Skagit Valley HeraldBrownAlso in The Herald-Dispatch
  3. Ads misleadingly link Ohio’s Sherrod Brown to Texas woman who had gender transition-related surgery

    Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy.

    PolitifactBrown
  4. Anti-Trump blue wave is predicted for the midterm elections. Will it happen, or will it be another polling miss? | National

    Williamson said Trump’s runs for the White House saw polls overstate Democrats’ support by 3.1% in 2016, 4.6% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2024.

    The Star DemocratBrown
  5. Husted addresses HB6 ties, rising prices in Ohio Senate push

    Husted is trying to stay in Washington but is being challenged by former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, who lost two years ago to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno.

    WOIOBrownHusted
  6. Donald Trump Rallies Ohio Crowd In Youngstown, Weeks Before Election

    Trump has been campaigning for Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, in his special election against former Democrat Sen.

    TIPP InsightsHusted
  7. Ohio poll finds Republicans slightly ahead but within margin of error in Senator, governor races

    In the Senate race, 44% said they’d vote for Husted, 43% said they’d vote for Brown, 4% said they’d vote for either Independent Greg Levy or Libertarian William Redpath, and 9% were undecided.

    WCMHRamaswamyHusted
  8. Republican in nail-biter Senate race shrugs off Trump’s awful polling. Here’s why

    Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) is locked in a tight re-election battle with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

    Staten Island AdvanceHusted

Sherrod Brown, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DSherrod Brown 64.0% 64.5% 63.5% 1.0 pts –
RJon Husted 36.7% 35.5% 37.5% 2.0 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Jon Husted

Jon Husted

Republican United States Senator from Ohio (since 2025)

Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to the US Senate from Ohio in 2025, faces Democrat Sherrod Brown in the 2026 special election for the rest of JD Vance's term.

Born 1967 · Royal Oak, Michigan
Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown

Democratic

Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who represented Ohio in the U.S. Senate from 2007 to 2025, is his party's nominee in Ohio's 2026 special Senate election.

Born 1952 · Mansfield, Ohio

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi49.0K contracts

Ohio Senate margin of victory

Husted, 2+ pts
29.0%
Husted, 4+ pts
19.5%
Husted, 6+ pts
10.5%
Husted, 8+ pts
5.9%
Husted, 10+ pts
5.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi66.3K contracts

Ohio Senate margin of victory

Brown, 2+ pts
–
Brown, 4+ pts
37.0%
Brown, 6+ pts
23.5%
Brown, 8+ pts
13.5%
Brown, 10+ pts
9.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.2K traded

Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory

Brown 12%+
6.1%
Brown 9-12%
3.6%
Brown 6-9%
19.5%
Brown 3-6%
23.0%
Brown 0-3%
21.5%
Husted 0-3%
18.5%
Husted 3-6%
6.5%
Husted 6-9%
3.1%
Husted 9-12%
3.5%
Husted 12%+
0.1%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$1.3M traded

Prices which party wins.

Sherrod Brown: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $120.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.1M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Sherrod Brown: Counted · bid 63.0% / ask 64.0% · $109.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Sherrod Brown

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi