Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

South Carolina Senate 2026

85.5% RDarline Graham Nordone leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
85.5%
Kalshi
85.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for South Carolina Senate.

  1. Darline Graham won't challenge Trump over Russia diesel deal

    Sen. Darline Graham declined to say if President Trump's deal to lift sanctions on Russian diesel violated a sanctions bill named for her late brother.

    Greenville NewsNordone
  2. Democrat Annie Andrews running to flip a Senate seat in deep-red South Carolina

    Annie Andrews, a Democrat, is running to flip a Senate seat in South Carolina, a state traditionally dominated by Republicans. The news item highlights her candidacy and the challenge of winning in a deep-red state.

    ms.nowAndrews
  3. Republicans are "freaking out" over Texas possibly going blue, GOP lawmaker divulges

    The article from LGBTQ Nation reports that Texas politics are unsettled by a potential blue shift in the U.S. Senate race.

    LGBTQ NationGallantNordone
  4. The married lesbian couple running a joint campaign to unseat Idaho's most powerful GOP lawmakers

    Topic: Darline Graham Nordone and her political activity as part of a married lesbian couple campaigning to challenge powerful Idaho GOP lawmakers (as covered by LGBTQ Nation).

    LGBTQ NationGallantRothNordone
  5. Midterms Margins Prediction Markets: Key States Margin of Victory

    Market view: Kalshi’s South Carolina Margin Market shows Darline Graham by 1+ point at about $0.84, with over $3 million traded. Traders currently imply an 85% chance of victory for Graham.

    thelines.comNordone
More coverage 12
  1. President Trump plans tele-rally to boost support for Sen. Darline Graham

    Annie Andrews, a Democrat physician, is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina's Senate race.

    WCIVAndrews
  2. Democrats’ Chances of Retaking the Senate, According to Republican Polls

    The article discusses Republican polling in South Carolina for the U.S. Senate race featuring Annie Andrews (Democrat) against incumbent or challenging Republican candidate Darline Graham.

    NewsweekAndrews
  3. South Carolina Senate race: Graham, Andrews in close contest

    Annie Andrews is the Democratic candidate in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race facing Republican incumbent-turned-appointee Darline Graham. The contest has been closer than expected in a largely Republican state.

    WJCLAndrews
  4. Darline Graham vs. Annie Andrews: What to know about South Carolina's US Senate race

    Background: Andrews is a pediatrician who markets her campaign on healthcare, affordability, and her experience with children and families.

    WCNCAndrews
  5. Andrews, Graham clash over alleged family business ties to China

    In the South Carolina U.S. Senate race, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews accused Republican Sen. Darline Graham of concealing her family’s business ties to China and profiting from China-related interests.

    WJCLAndrews
  6. China takes center stage in SC's US Senate contest

    The Democrat trying to flip South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat called Wednesday for Sen. Darline Graham to recuse herself from all trade and military votes involving China.

    South Carolina Daily GazetteNordone
  7. S.C. Succession: Annie Andrews Blasts Darline Graham Nordone on China Ties

    “It’s inappropriate for a senator to profit from business with China,” Andrews said. “It’s even worse to conceal those ties from the public. National security isn’t an elective when you’re a United States senator.

    FitsNewsNordone
  8. Andrews Rips Graham For Name-Change After 'Socialist' Dig: VIDEO

    Longtime South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died in July of this year.

    Comic SandsNordone
  9. Michele Tafoya says she’s ‘pro-choice,’ despite record on abortion

    Peggy Flanagan: Michele Tafoya would be a ‘yes, sir’ senator for Trump August 13, 2026 / 11:22

    ms.nowNordoneTafoya
  10. President Trump may rally for Darline Graham in Greenville

    Summary: The article reports that President Donald Trump may travel to the Upstate of South Carolina to rally support for U.S. Senate candidate Darline Graham, who is in a tight race against Democrat Annie Andrews.

    The Post and CourierAndrews
  11. Democrats face possible headaches if they win the midterms

    In response to political pressure and attacks, Andrews released a direct-to-camera ad clarifying her stance: she does not support transgender girls’ participation in women’s sports and does not support gender-affirming…

    cnn.comAndrews
  12. SC US Senate campaign escalates on China, law enforcement

    South Carolina U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews heated up with dueling events over China, national security, and law enforcement.

    WYFFAndrews

Darline Graham Nordone, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RDarline Graham Nordone 85.5% 85.5% 85.5% 0.0 pts –
DAnnie Andrews 14.9% 15.5% 14.5% 1.0 pts –

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/south-carolina/embed.html" title="South Carolina Senate: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/south-carolina/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-south-carolina">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/south-carolina/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-south-carolina"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/south-carolina/card-landscape.png" alt="South Carolina Senate: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Annie Andrews

Annie Andrews

Democratic

Annie Andrews, a pediatrician living in Charleston and the Democratic nominee for US Senate in South Carolina, faces Republican appointee Darline Graham in the November 3, 2026, election.

Born 1981 · Paducah, Kentucky
Darline Graham Nordone

Darline Graham Nordone

Republican United States Senator from South Carolina (since 2026)

Darline Graham Nordone, a Republican appointed in July 2026 to her late brother Lindsey Graham's U.S. Senate seat, is her party's nominee for the South Carolina seat.

Born 1964 · Central, South Carolina

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi105.5K contracts

South Carolina Senate margin of victory

Graham, 1+ pts
82.5%
Graham, 3+ pts
73.5%
Graham, 5+ pts
48.5%
Graham, 7+ pts
35.0%
Graham, 9+ pts
22.0%
Graham, 11+ pts
13.5%
Graham, 13+ pts
9.0%
Graham, 15+ pts
6.0%
Graham, 17+ pts
3.0%
Graham, 19+ pts
2.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi9.4K contracts

South Carolina Senate margin of victory

Yes
12.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.0K traded

South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

Andrews Wins
16.5%
Graham 0-5%
31.5%
Graham 5-10%
27.5%
Graham 10-15%
16.0%
Graham 15-20%
4.9%
Graham 20-25%
4.9%
Graham 25-30%
3.9%
Graham 30%+
0.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$799.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Darline Graham Nordone: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 86.0% · $66.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.2M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Darline Graham Nordone: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 86.0% · $173.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Darline Graham Nordone

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi