nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Texas Senate 2026

61.7% DJames Talarico leads TruthIndex™Lean D
Polymarket
62.5%
Kalshi
61.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Texas Senate.

  1. Trump lashes out at Republicans as Ken Paxton struggles in Texas

    The president singled out Karl Rove and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn as his endorsed candidate appears to be in a tight race with James Talarico.

    PoliticoPaxton
  2. Trump: 'If Ken Paxton loses' Texas Senate, blame Cornyn, Karl Rove

    President Donald Trump on Thursday said Texas' incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn and conservative commentator Karl Rove should be blamed if GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton loses to Democrat James Talarico in the Lone…

    cnbc.comPaxton
  3. Talarico rallies as his Texas US Senate race against Paxton enters final weeks

    James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, is set to rally with supporters Thursday, as his underdog bid to become the first Democrat to win statewide in over 30 years heads into its final weeks.

    Greenwich TimeTalaricoAlso in Bozeman Daily Chronicle
  4. Texas Forever Super PAC Spends $5.85 Million Against Ken Paxton

    The Texas SuperPac is affiliated with Senate Democrats' main outside-spending organization: Senate Majority PAC confirmed the relationship, describing Texas Forever as an affiliate in a Sept.

    Legis1Paxton
  5. In leaked audio, Ken Paxton says 'Abbott is struggling'

    “So those are my two disadvantages. One was: three, actually: not having time to raise more money, having the negative ads, and my opponent is well-funded and well-known,” Paxton said, referring to the Democratic…

    San Antonio ExpressPaxton
More coverage 11
  1. James Talarico announces record-breaking $64 million fundraising haul in Texas Senate race

    Caroline Linton is an associate managing editor on the political team for CBSNews.com. She has previously written for The Daily Beast, Newsweek and amNewYork.

    CBS NewsTalarico
  2. Live updates: AOC campaigns with Abdul El-Sayed, JD Vance rallies in Michigan

    “I’m a proud Texas Democrat, but I already have a religion and I already have a sports team,” he said. “So, I have no problem sharing hard truths with my party if it’s what’s best for Texas.”

    cnn.comPaxton
  3. Texas Democrat James Talarico faces grilling from voters at town hall in tight Senate race

    Talarico casts himself as a moderate who would put Texans' needs over party allegiances amid close contest against Republican Ken Paxton.

    The GuardianTalarico
  4. Five Takeaways From James Talarico’s CNN Town Hall With Texas Voters

    Texas Democrat and Senate hopeful James Talarico faced off with friendly, undecided and skeptical voters during a CNN town hall Wednesday night, five days before early voting starts in one of the country’s most hotly…

    Wall Street JournalTalarico
  5. Talarico debates Texas voters in CNN-Jubilee town hall amid tight Senate race

    Texas Democrat James Talarico on Wednesday took questions from voters in a town hall hosted by CNN and Jubilee, appearing on stage solo as he calls for rival Republican Ken Paxton to debate in their closely watched…

    The HillTalarico
  6. Talarico to appear in CNN Town Hall amid tight Texas Senate race
    KVUETalarico
  7. Ken Paxton to close Senate run with “Come And Take It” bus tour

    Ken Paxton is campaigning for the U.S. Senate in Texas with an 18-day, 30+ stop “Come and Take It” bus tour, ending at the Alamo on Election Day Eve (Nov. 2).

    Texas TribunePaxton
  8. New polls show James Talarico with lead over Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race

    New polls show tight contests in Texas in the race for U.S. Senate and governor.

    The HillTalaricoPaxton
  9. Paxton says he won’t cut Social Security benefits, responding to leaked audio

    Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General and Republican U.S. Senate candidate, says he would not vote to cut Social Security benefits if elected to the U.S. Senate.

    Texas Public RadioPaxton
  10. Texas Senate race remains a dead heat as early voting approaches

    Latest Texas Politics Project poll: Talarico 50%, Paxton 47% (margin of error 3.34%).

    KTBCPaxton
  11. UT Texas Senate poll shows Talarico leading Paxton before early voting

    Texas Senate race: University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton heading into early voting, 50% to 47% (±3.3 points). Libertarian Ted Brown at 1%, others 2%.

    USA TodayPaxton

James Talarico, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJames Talarico 61.7% 62.5% 61.5% 1.0 pts –
RKen Paxton 39.0% 37.5% 39.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

James Talarico

James Talarico

Democratic Member of the Texas House of Representatives (since 2018)

James Talarico, a former teacher who has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2018, is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026.

Born 1989 · Round Rock, Texas
Ken Paxton

Ken Paxton

Republican Attorney General of Texas (since 2015)

Ken Paxton, a Republican who has been attorney general of Texas since 2015, defeated Senator John Cornyn to become his party's 2026 Senate nominee in Texas.

Born 1962 · Minot, North Dakota

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi618.6K contracts

Texas Senate margin of victory

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
36.5%
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
26.5%
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
17.0%
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
12.5%
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
8.1%
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4.7%
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
2.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi672.4K contracts

Texas Senate margin of victory

James Talarico, 1+ pts
56.5%
James Talarico, 2+ pts
45.5%
James Talarico, 3+ pts
35.0%
James Talarico, 4+ pts
23.5%
James Talarico, 5+ pts
17.5%
James Talarico, 7+ pts
7.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$33.1K traded

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 12%+
2.1%
Paxton 9-12%
2.3%
Paxton 6-9%
2.7%
Paxton 3-6%
6.5%
Paxton 0-3%
30.5%
Talarico 0-3%
30.5%
Talarico 3-6%
23.5%
Talarico 6-9%
4.5%
Talarico 9-12%
4.0%
Talarico 12%+
4.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$3.9M traded

Prices which party wins.

James Talarico: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $226.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi29.0M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

James Talarico: Counted · bid 61.0% / ask 62.0% · $879.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: James Talarico

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

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