Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

Connecticut Governor 2026

96.2% DNed Lamont leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.7%
Kalshi
96.2%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Connecticut Governor.

  1. Big lead for incumbent CT governor over Republican challenger in poll

    Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat seeking a third term as Connecticut's governor, had a commanding lead of 58% to 38% over Republican Ryan Fazio in a Quinnipiac

    Norwich BulletinFazio
  2. Connecticut governor holds double-digit lead in reelection bid: Poll

    Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) has a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent Ryan Fazio in the race for the Constitution State’s top job, according to a new poll.

    aol.caFazioAlso in fox56news.com
  3. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont leads GOP challenger Ryan Fazio by double-digit points: Poll

    Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) has a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent Ryan Fazio in the race for the Constitution State’s top job, according to a new poll.

    The HillFazioLamont
  4. Exclusive poll: Lamont leads Fazio by 13 points in CT governor’s race

    NEW HAVEN, Conn. (WTNH): Gov. Ned Lamont holds a 13-point lead over state Sen. Ryan Fazio in Connecticut’s race for governor, according to an exclusive Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll.

    WTNHFazio
  5. Quinnipiac poll finds Lamont leading Fazio in Connecticut governor race

    Ned Lamont leads in Connecticut governor race. A Quinnipiac University poll (Oct. 8–12) shows Lamont 58% to Republican challenger Ryan Fazio 38% among likely voters, with 3% undecided.

    fingerlakes1.comLamont
More coverage 10
  1. On the Ballot: Do debates really matter?

    The article notes a Georgia gubernatorial debate involving Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson.

    The HillJacksonLamont
  2. On CT bear hunt, Lamont and Fazio find common ground

    In Connecticut’s governor race, both candidates, incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Sen. Ryan Fazio, support allowing a regulated black bear hunting season.

    CT MirrorLamont
  3. Governor Ned Lamont leads challenger Ryan Fazio by 13-points in new poll

    In Connecticut, incumbent Governor Ned Lamont leads Republican challenger Ryan Fazio by 13 points in a new Emerson College/Nexstar poll. Lamont is at 51%, Fazio 38%, with 11% undecided.

    WTICLamont
  4. Connecticut 2026 Poll: Ned Lamont Holds 13-Point Lead Over Ryan Fazio - Emerson Polling

    Emerson College Polling/Nexstar surveys Connecticut’s 2026 governor race, showing incumbent Ned Lamont leading Republican Ryan Fazio 51% to 38%, with 11% undecided. The 13-point margin mirrors Lamont’s 2022 re-election.

    Emerson College PollingLamont
  5. News 12 | Connecticut

    Facing a 20-point deficit in the race for governor with less than a week before Early Voting begins, Republican Ryan Fazio rolled out a plan on Wednesday to get workers into the 86,000 open positions in Connecticut.

    connecticut.news12.comFazio
  6. Lamont's lead over Fazio reaches 20 points in Quinnipiac poll

    Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont and GOP gubernatorial challenger Ryan Fazio. Credit: Molly Ingram / WSHU

    CT MirrorLamont
  7. Lamont widens lead over Fazio to 20 points in new Connecticut governor poll

    HARTFORD - With less than three weeks before Election Day, Gov. Ned Lamont has increased his lead over Republican challenger Ryan Fazio to 20 points, 58%-to-38%, according to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll of…

    Yahoo NewsLamontFazioAlso in sheltonherald.com
  8. Poll: Lamont holds 20-point lead over Fazio for CT governor - Westfair Communications

    Republican State Sen. Ryan Fazio of who is the Republican candidate for Connecticut governor. Photo courtesy of Ryan Fazio for Governor

    westfaironline.comFazio
  9. Lamont leads Fazio by 20 points in new Connecticut governor poll

    Go beyond the daily forecast and take a deep dive with meteorologist Dan Amarante into weather science and trends in Connecticut.

    ctinsider.comFazioLamont
  10. 10/14/26 - CT Governor's Race: Lamont 58%, Fazio 38% In The Final Stretch, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Fazio Still Unknown To 3 In 10 Likely Voters

    Less than three weeks until Election Day, 58 percent of likely voters back incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont, who's seeking a third term as governor, and 38 percent back Republican challenger Ryan Fazio, with 3 percent not…

    Quinnipiac PollLamont

Ned Lamont, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DNed Lamont 96.2% 96.7% 96.2% 0.5 pts –
RRyan Fazio 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 0.2 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Ned Lamont

Ned Lamont

Democratic Governor of Connecticut (since 2019)

Democratic governor of Connecticut since 2019, a businessman and former Greenwich selectman, seeking a third term in the November 2026 election.

Born 1954 · Washington, D.C.
Ryan Fazio

Ryan Fazio

Republican Member of the Connecticut State Senate from the 36th district (since 2021)

Ryan Fazio, a Republican state senator from Greenwich since 2021, is his party's 2026 nominee for governor of Connecticut against Democratic incumbent Ned Lamont.

Born 1990 · Norwalk, Connecticut

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.1K contracts

Connecticut Governor margin of victory

Lamont, 8+ pts
94.9%
Lamont, 11+ pts
91.2%
Lamont, 14+ pts
84.0%
Lamont, 17+ pts
73.0%
Lamont, 20+ pts
56.0%
Lamont, 23+ pts
43.0%
Lamont, 26+ pts
29.5%
Lamont, 29+ pts
18.5%
Lamont, 32+ pts
8.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.4K traded

Connecticut Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.0%
Democrat 0-5%
2.1%
Democrat 5-10%
–
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
30.5%
Democrat 20-25%
28.5%
Democrat 25-30%
–
Democrat 30%+
11.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$9.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ned Lamont: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi54.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ned Lamont: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 96.4% · $58.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ned Lamont

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Connecticut pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi