nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CT-02 House 2026

98.0% DJoe Courtney leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.6%
Kalshi
98.5%
Spread
0.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CT-02 House.

  1. Madison Selectmen Approve Surf Club Seawall Funding, Review Sidewalk Projects And Surveys

    Madison Selectmen approved funding for a surf club seawall project and reviewed sidewalk projects and related surveys. The article notes that Lyons credited U.S.

    PatchCourtney
  2. Mental Health Parity Under The Trump Administration: Where DOL Is Headed And What Congress Is Doing About It - Employee Benefits & Compensation - United States

    Joe Courtney (D-CT) is a sponsor of the bipartisan Parity Enforcement Act (H.R. 957), reintroduced in February 2025, aimed at expanding the Department of Labor’s statutory enforcement authority for mental health parity.

    mondaq.comCourtneyNorcross
  3. Cole and Martin King battle for Democratic nomination

    The article reports on two Columbus Democrats competing for an uncontested path to the November election in Ohio House District 2, highlighting the battle between local candidates.

    pro.stateaffairs.comAustin
  4. 1-minute voter guide: Lauren Boebert and Eileen Laubacher seek 4th District seat

    Image 2: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert and Democratic challenger Eileen Laubacher field questions from moderator Kyle Clark during a 4th Congressional District debate at 9News in Denver

    AxiosLaubacherAustinBaslerPeterson
  5. Sen. Markey, Leader Schumer, Reps. Matsui, Menendez, Meng Lead Colleagues in Demanding Trump FCC Withdraw Proposal to Undermine E-Rate Program

    Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.

    markey.senate.govOfficialUnderwoodCastorCourtneyCostaHayesCleaverFosterMcCollumBalintSalinas
More coverage 4
  1. Matsui, Leader Schumer, Markey, Menendez, Meng Lead Colleages in Demanding Trump FCC Withdraw Proposal to Undermine E-Rate Program: Doris O. Matsui

    This press release reports that Congresswoman Doris Matsui (D-CA) joined Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and other lawmakers to urge the FCC to withdraw its proposal that would eliminate or limit the E-Rate…

    capitolreleases.comCourtneyHayes
  2. Press Release: Joe Courtney, Connecticut Delegation Announce $75.3 Million in LIHEAP Funding for Connecticut

    The press release reports that Connecticut’s congressional delegation, including Joe Courtney, announced over $75.3 million in LIHEAP funding for Connecticut.

    Quiver QuantitativeCourtney
  3. CT's 4th Congressional District Race: Himes, Goldstein & Wesley Battle Again

    This article covers the 4th Congressional District race in Connecticut, featuring incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, Republican challenger Dr. Michael Goldstein, and Independent Benjamin Wesley.

    PatchHimesAustinLancia
  4. A remapped district all but securing his seat, Rep. Castro focuses on immigration reform and flipping the House

    The article profiles Rep. Lloyd Castor? (likely Lloyd Doggett? No: the provided content mentions Castro, a Texas representative) focusing on his re-election prospects in a remapped district and immigration reform…

    sanantoniomovingreport.comAustinBaezSims

Joe Courtney, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJoe Courtney 98.0% 97.6% 98.5% 0.9 pts –
RGeorge Austin 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

George Austin

Republican

George Austin, a business owner, is the Republican nominee for Connecticut's 2nd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney in the November 3 general election.

Joe Courtney

Joe Courtney

Democratic U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 2nd congressional district (since 2007)

Joe Courtney, a Democrat who has represented Connecticut's 2nd congressional district since 2007, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican George Austin, a business owner, in the November 3 general election.

Born 1953

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.7K contracts

Connecticut's 2nd District margin of victory

Courtney, 8+ pts
95.0%
Courtney, 11+ pts
94.2%
Courtney, 14+ pts
–
Courtney, 17+ pts
69.0%
implied
Courtney, 20+ pts
67.0%
Courtney, 23+ pts
48.0%
implied
Courtney, 26+ pts
34.5%
Courtney, 29+ pts
23.0%
Courtney, 32+ pts
11.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.3K traded

CT-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.5%
Democrat 0-5%
0.1%
Democrat 5-10%
4.8%
Democrat 10-15%
3.9%
Democrat 15-20%
15.0%
Democrat 20-25%
26.5%
Democrat 25-30%
29.3%
Democrat 30-35%
26.0%
Democrat 35%+
3.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$18.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Joe Courtney: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.9% · $797 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Joe Courtney: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.8% · $618 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Joe Courtney

If the House member sworn in for CT-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Connecticut

  1. Connecticut GovernorD96%
  2. CT-01 HouseD97%
  3. CT-03 HouseD97%
  4. CT-04 HouseD97%
  5. CT-05 HouseD95%