nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CT-03 House 2026

96.7% DRosa DeLauro leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.4%
Kalshi
97.4%
Spread
1.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CT-03 House.

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  4. VOTER'S GUIDE: Morrison faces Bass in 3rd Congressional District | 2026 Election Sun Current

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Rosa DeLauro, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DRosa DeLauro 96.7% 96.4% 97.4% 1.1 pts –
RChris Lancia 3.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chris Lancia

Republican

Chris Lancia, a Republican law enforcement professional, is his party's nominee for Connecticut's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Rosa DeLauro in the general election on November 3.

Rosa DeLauro

Rosa DeLauro

Democratic U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 3rd congressional district (since 1991)

Rosa DeLauro, a Democrat who has represented Connecticut's 3rd congressional district since 1991 and is ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Chris Lancia.

Born 1943 · New Haven, Connecticut

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.8K contracts

Connecticut's 3rd District margin of victory

DeLauro, 14+ pts
92.4%
DeLauro, 17+ pts
78.0%
DeLauro, 20+ pts
82.0%
DeLauro, 23+ pts
71.5%
DeLauro, 26+ pts
57.5%
DeLauro, 29+ pts
41.5%
DeLauro, 32+ pts
21.0%
implied
DeLauro, 35+ pts
17.0%
DeLauro, 38+ pts
5.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.9K traded

CT-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.4%
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
implied
Democrat 5-10%
0.5%
Democrat 10-15%
4.0%
Democrat 15-20%
4.3%
Democrat 20-25%
16.0%
Democrat 25-30%
25.0%
Democrat 30-35%
27.5%
Democrat 35%+
22.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Rosa DeLauro: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.0% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Rosa DeLauro: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 99.7% · $579 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Rosa DeLauro

If the House member sworn in for CT-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Connecticut

  1. Connecticut GovernorD96%
  2. CT-01 HouseD97%
  3. CT-02 HouseD98%
  4. CT-04 HouseD97%
  5. CT-05 HouseD95%