US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CT-05 House.
Topic: U.S. Representatives Jahana Hayes (CT-05) and Debbie Dingell introduced the "Title IX Take Responsibility Act," a bill to hold schools more accountable for how they handle reports of sexual assault and harassment.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
Himes
Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianThe Newtown 2026 voter guide on Patch lists Chris Shea as the Republican candidate for Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District (U.S. House).
The Danbury 2026 voter guide lists Chris Shea as the Republican candidate for U.S. House, Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
This press release reports that Congresswoman Doris Matsui (D-CA) joined Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and other lawmakers to urge the FCC to withdraw its proposal that would eliminate or limit the E-Rate…
Jahana Hayes is the Democratic candidate (with Working Families endorsement) for Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District, not a CT-05 House seat. The 5th District is a U.S.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJahana Hayes | 94.7% | 94.7% | 94.7% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RChris Shea | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Chris Shea, a Republican firefighter, is his party's nominee for Connecticut's 5th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes in the general election on November 3.
Jahana Hayes, a Democrat who has represented Connecticut's 5th congressional district since 2019 and was named National Teacher of the Year in 2016, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Chris Shea.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Connecticut's 5th District margin of victory
| Hayes, 3+ pts | 94.8% | |
| Hayes, 6+ pts | 90.3% | |
| Hayes, 9+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Hayes, 12+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Hayes, 15+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Hayes, 18+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Hayes, 21+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Hayes, 24+ pts | 22.0% | |
| Hayes, 27+ pts | 7.6% |
CT-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 4.7% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 19.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 25.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 34.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 10.1% | |
| Democrat 30%+ | 2.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Jahana Hayes: Counted · bid 93.6% / ask 95.8% · $14.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jahana Hayes: Counted · bid 93.7% / ask 95.6% · $26.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jahana Hayes
If the House member sworn in for CT-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
