nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CT-01 House 2026

96.9% DLuke Bronin leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.7%
Kalshi
97.9%
Spread
2.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CT-01 House.

  1. Southington 2026 Election Voter Guide: Candidates, Polling Places, Early Voting Details

    Luke Bronin is the Democratic candidate for Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District (CT-01) in the 2026 election. The race also features Republican challenger Amy Chai and Green Party candidate Mary L. Sanders.

    PatchBronin
  2. West Hartfor 2026 Election Voter Guide: Candidates, Polling Places, Early Voting Details

    The West Hartford 2026 Election Voter Guide (Patch) lists Luke Bronin as the Democratic candidate for U.S. House of Representatives, 1st Congressional District (CT-01).

    PatchBronin
  3. Young Democrats: The Rise of a New Generation in Congress (2026)

    Luke Bronin, former Hartford mayor and Rhodes Scholar, is part of a younger Democratic cohort in Connecticut challenging longtime Rep. John Larson (CT-01).

    upaphoto.comBronin
  4. Choose Jane Wisialowski in the 23rd

    The page title suggests endorsing or choosing Jane Wisialowski in the 23rd district (Connecticut) as reported by The Day.

    The Day (New London)Chai
  5. Berlin 2026 Election Voter Guide: Candidates, Polling Places, Early Voting Details

    Amy Chai is the Republican candidate for U.S. Representative in Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District (not CT-01 House).

    PatchChai
More coverage 2
  1. Hartford 2026 Election Voter Guide: Candidates, Polling Places, Early Voting Details

    If you’re seeking state-level information, the guide also covers Connecticut State House districts on Hartford ballots, including the 1st District where Matt Ritter is the Democratic candidate.

    PatchChai
  2. Who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area during the 2026 midterm elections? - CBS Chicago

    The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.

    CBS NewsCastilloUnderwoodFordEstiFortierJacksonEllesonDavisMarterDecioFordCoxMillerHannonRamirezLaHoodBissMaxwellGegenMeyerRegnitzChai

Luke Bronin, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLuke Bronin 96.9% 95.7% 97.9% 2.2 pts –
RAmy Chai 4.4% 4.5% 1.9% 2.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Amy Chai

Republican

Amy Chai is the Republican nominee for Connecticut's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Luke Bronin, the former mayor of Hartford who defeated incumbent John Larson in the Democratic primary.

Luke Bronin

Luke Bronin

Democratic

Luke Bronin, a Democrat who served as mayor of Hartford from 2016 to 2024, defeated incumbent John Larson in the 2026 primary for Connecticut's 1st congressional district and faces Republican Amy Chai in the general election.

Born 1979 · Westchester County, New York

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi35.0K contracts

Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory

Bronin, 22+ pts
92.0%
Bronin, 25+ pts
81.5%
Bronin, 28+ pts
72.5%
Bronin, 31+ pts
58.5%
Bronin, 34+ pts
44.0%
Bronin, 37+ pts
30.0%
Bronin, 40+ pts
18.0%
Bronin, 43+ pts
11.4%
Bronin, 46+ pts
4.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.3K traded

CT-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
implied
Democrat 0-10%
0.5%
Democrat 10-20%
0.1%
Democrat 20-25%
1.8%
Democrat 25-30%
6.7%
Democrat 30-35%
34.0%
Democrat 35-40%
35.0%
Democrat 40-45%
19.0%
Democrat 45-50%
5.8%
Democrat 50%+
3.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$13.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Luke Bronin: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 97.0% · $278 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Luke Bronin: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 98.4% · $336 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Luke Bronin

If the House member sworn in for CT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Connecticut

  1. Connecticut GovernorD96%
  2. CT-02 HouseD98%
  3. CT-03 HouseD97%
  4. CT-04 HouseD97%
  5. CT-05 HouseD95%