nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CT-04 House 2026

97.5% DJim Himes leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.2%
Kalshi
98.0%
Spread
0.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CT-04 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  2. Media Monitor: Breaking Defense Reports Midterms, Budget Impasse Weigh on Pentagon Priorities

    The article cites Breaking Defense reporting that if Democrats perform well in the November midterms, military aid to Ukraine could return to the congressional agenda.

    newsroomamerica.comHimes
  3. Why the midterms could matter for Ukraine aid

    Context: With Congress briefly recessed, the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is being framed as a post-midterm issue.

    defenceline.inHimes
  4. CT's 4th Congressional District Race: Himes, Goldstein & Wesley Battle Again

    This article covers the 4th Congressional District race in Connecticut, featuring incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, Republican challenger Dr. Michael Goldstein, and Independent Benjamin Wesley.

    PatchHimesAustinLancia

Jim Himes, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJim Himes 97.5% 97.2% 98.0% 0.8 pts –
RMichael Goldstein 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jim Himes

Jim Himes

Democratic U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 4th congressional district (since 2009)

Jim Himes, a Democrat who has represented Connecticut's 4th congressional district since 2009 and is ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Michael Goldstein.

Born 1966 · Lima, Peru

Michael Goldstein

Republican Member of the Greenwich Representative Town Meeting from the 10th district (since 2023)

Michael Goldstein, a Republican member of the Greenwich Representative Town Meeting, is his party's nominee for Connecticut's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Jim Himes in the general election on November 3.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi554 contracts

Connecticut's 4th District margin of victory

Himes, 21+ pts
90.4%
implied
Himes, 24+ pts
81.0%
implied
Himes, 27+ pts
71.0%
implied
Himes, 30+ pts
62.0%
implied
Himes, 33+ pts
50.5%
Himes, 36+ pts
37.5%
Himes, 39+ pts
23.5%
Himes, 42+ pts
12.5%
Himes, 45+ pts
5.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$21.7K traded

CT-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
4.0%
Democrat 0-10%
0.9%
Democrat 10-20%
3.0%
Democrat 20-25%
5.6%
Democrat 25-30%
24.0%
Democrat 30-35%
22.0%
Democrat 35-40%
27.0%
Democrat 40-45%
6.7%
Democrat 45-50%
3.9%
Democrat 50%+
2.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$48.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jim Himes: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 98.6% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jim Himes: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 99.7% · $570 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jim Himes

If the House member sworn in for CT-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Connecticut

  1. Connecticut GovernorD96%
  2. CT-01 HouseD97%
  3. CT-02 HouseD98%
  4. CT-03 HouseD97%
  5. CT-05 HouseD95%