nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

Illinois Governor 2026

96.8% DJB Pritzker leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.6%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
0.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Illinois Governor.

  1. Drinks and interruptions: Pritzker, Bailey meet in only governor debate of election cycle - Illinois Times, the capital city's source of news, politics, arts, entertainment, culture

    State-federal relations: Bailey urged focus on Illinois, criticizing federal questions and Trump-related references; he suggested ending tariffs and shifting focus to state matters.

    illinoistimes.comBailey
  2. Pritzker says ‘so much more to do’ in Illinois as he seeks r...

    Governor will visit first primary state of South Carolina, fueling speculation he'll seek presidency

    thetimesweekly.comPritzker
  3. Bailey trying to stay on message as attacks from Pritzker mo...

    Darren Bailey, the Republican candidate for Illinois governor, is recalibrating his 2026 campaign to win over voters who opposed him in 2022.

    thetimesweekly.comBailey
  4. More on Debate: Pritzker, Bailey trade jabs in race for Governor

    Darren Bailey, the Republican candidate for Illinois governor, shared a stage with incumbent Democrat J.B. Pritzker at a WTTW debate-style event three weeks before the election.

    vandaliaradio.comPritzkerBailey
  5. Pritzker, Bailey face off at heated forum

    Bailey opened by joking viewers should drink every time Pritzker mentioned Trump; the debate featured frequent interruptions and accusations.

    The Daily NorthwesternPritzkerBailey
More coverage 11
  1. Pritzker offers glimpse of veto session agenda

    Governor JB Pritzker provided a preview of items likely to be considered during the upcoming veto session, while discussing progress on Illinois’ medical debt relief program.

    insider.capitolnewsillinois.comPritzker
  2. Drinks and interruptions: Pritzker, Bailey meet in only governor debate of Illinois election cycle

    Darren Bailey and JB Pritzker faced off in Illinois’ only gubernatorial debate of the cycle. The hour-long event, originally a Q&A, devolved into a heated exchange as Bailey interrupted Pritzker on many questions.

    WKMSPritzkerBailey
  3. DARREN BAILEY FACES CHALLENGES IN SECOND BID FOR ILLINOIS GOVERNOR

    Darren Bailey is seeking a second gubernatorial bid in Illinois, challenging incumbent JB Pritzker in a rematch of the 2022 election.

    wfiwradio.comBailey
  4. Pritzker and Bailey Snipe, Interrupt, and Argue in Only Televised Appearance

    The Illinois race for governor featured Gov. JB Pritzker and GOP nominee Darren Bailey in their sole televised forum on WTTW.

    theillinoize.comBailey
  5. Illinois Voter Guide 2026: Meet the Candidates Running for Statewide Office

    Don Tracy is an attorney based in Central Illinois. He is a Senior Counsel at Brown, Hay & Stephens, which his campaign website says is the oldest law firm in the state and where Abraham Lincoln practiced law.

    KTVIPritzkerTracy
  6. Democratic Holdouts Still Aren’t Committing to Trump’s School Choice Program

    New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s administration is “examining who the program would serve, which opportunities are available, and how it could best benefit public school students,” a spokesperson said.

    Education WeekGreenPritzker
  7. Bears Stadium Fight Erupts During Illinois Governor’s Debate

    The Bears' long-running stadium saga has become a hot-button and contentious issue in the Illinois gubernatorial race.

    Yahoo SportsPritzker
  8. Pritzker, Bailey trade jabs in race for governor | Illinois

    Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker speaks at a podium to supporters at the State Fair's Governor's Day campaign event.

    The Center SquarePritzker
  9. Pritzker, Bailey face off in only Illinois gubernatorial debate

    Darren Bailey participated in Illinois’ only gubernatorial debate with Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

    WANDBailey
  10. Pritzker, Bailey meet in only governor debate of election cycle - Chronicle Media

    Bailey interrupted frequently, turning the WTTW forum into a full debate, while challenging Pritzker on leadership and state policy.

    chronicleillinois.comBailey
  11. Four takeaways from the Pritzker-Bailey brawl

    Darren Bailey, who ran against Gov. JB Pritzker in Illinois, participated in a 2026 campaign forum with Pritzker.

    insider.capitolnewsillinois.comBailey

JB Pritzker, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJB Pritzker 96.8% 97.6% 96.8% 0.8 pts –
RDarren Bailey 2.9% 2.1% 3.0% 0.9 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/governor/illinois/embed.html" title="Illinois Governor: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/governor/illinois/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=governor-illinois">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/governor/illinois/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=governor-illinois"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/governor/illinois/card-landscape.png" alt="Illinois Governor: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Darren Bailey

Darren Bailey

Republican

Darren Bailey, a Republican farmer and former Illinois state senator, is again his party's nominee for governor of Illinois in 2026, facing Democrat JB Pritzker.

Born 1966 · Louisville, Illinois
JB Pritzker

JB Pritzker

Democratic Governor of Illinois (since 2019)

JB Pritzker, a Democrat and businessman who has been governor of Illinois since 2019, is seeking a third term in 2026 in a rematch with Republican Darren Bailey.

Born 1965 · Palo Alto, California

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.0K contracts

Illinois Governor margin of victory

Pritzker, 6+ pts
94.5%
Pritzker, 9+ pts
92.6%
Pritzker, 12+ pts
90.6%
Pritzker, 15+ pts
78.0%
Pritzker, 18+ pts
68.0%
Pritzker, 21+ pts
52.5%
Pritzker, 24+ pts
36.5%
Pritzker, 27+ pts
23.0%
Pritzker, 30+ pts
11.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.6K traded

Illinois Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.8%
Democrat 0-5%
2.8%
Democrat 5-10%
–
Democrat 10-15%
8.7%
Democrat 15-20%
21.5%
Democrat 20-25%
30.5%
Democrat 25-30%
9.5%
Democrat 30%+
20.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$15.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

JB Pritzker: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 98.3% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi165.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

JB Pritzker: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.6% · $26.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: JB Pritzker

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Illinois pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Illinois

  1. Illinois SenateD98%
  2. IL-01 HouseD96%
  3. IL-02 HouseD96%
  4. IL-03 HouseD96%
  5. IL-04 HouseD96%
  6. IL-05 HouseD97%
  7. IL-06 HouseD97%
  8. IL-07 HouseD97%