nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IL-01 House 2026

96.4% DJonathan Jackson leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.4%
Kalshi
96.3%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IL-01 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News

    The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.

    armenianclub.comDeanMcBathSmuckerUnderwoodGoodenSchrierSelfCammackHarderMorelleJacksonOlszewskiRutherfordJoyce
  2. Sexual harassment scandal shapes southwest suburban Illinois House race - Chicago Sun-Times

    The Chicago Sun-Times article covers the 97th Illinois House District race in the southwest suburbs, pitting Democrat Jessica Dixon Heitman against Republican Gabby Shanahan, following the resignation of ex-Rep.

    Chicago Sun-TimesMaxwell
  3. Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean seeks return to Congress in race vs. Republican Jennifer Davis - CBS Chicago

    The CBS Chicago article covers former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean seeking to return to Congress in Illinois’ 8th District, challenging Republican Jennifer Davis.

    CBS NewsDavisEstiFortierHouchinMaxwellRegnitz
  4. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  5. Who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area during the 2026 midterm elections? - CBS Chicago

    The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.

    CBS NewsCastilloUnderwoodFordEstiFortierJacksonEllesonDavisMarterDecioFordCoxMillerHannonRamirezLaHoodBissMaxwellGegenMeyerRegnitzChai
More coverage 2
  1. Sánchez, Sewell lead 55 Democrats in opposing U.S. Withdrawal from International Labor Organization: Linda T. Sánchez

    The article reports that 55 Democratic members, including Representative John Mannion (NY-22), signed a letter urging against the U.S. withdrawing from the International Labour Organization (ILO).

    capitolreleases.comJacksonMannion
  2. Our endorsement: Biss for 9th District in Congress

    Biss, Evanston Mayor, is described as a progressive Democrat aligned with the district’s liberal tradition.

    Daily HeraldBissMaxwell

Jonathan Jackson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJonathan Jackson 96.4% 96.4% 96.3% 0.1 pts –
RChristian Maxwell 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-il-01">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Christian Maxwell

Republican

Christian Maxwell is the Republican nominee for Illinois's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Jonathan Jackson after winning the Republican primary with 64.5% of the vote.

Jonathan Jackson

Jonathan Jackson

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 1st congressional district (since 2023)

Jonathan Jackson, a Democrat who has represented Illinois's 1st congressional district since 2023, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Christian Maxwell.

Born 1966 · Chicago

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi8.7K contracts

Illinois's 1st District margin of victory

Jackson, 26+ pts
94.1%
Jackson, 29+ pts
82.5%
Jackson, 32+ pts
73.5%
Jackson, 35+ pts
63.0%
Jackson, 38+ pts
52.5%
Jackson, 41+ pts
41.5%
Jackson, 44+ pts
31.5%
Jackson, 47+ pts
20.5%
Jackson, 50+ pts
10.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.0K traded

IL-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.3%
Democrat 0-15%
0.5%
Democrat 15-25%
0.8%
Democrat 25-30%
2.4%
Democrat 30-35%
21.6%
Democrat 35-40%
22.5%
Democrat 40-45%
30.0%
Democrat 45-50%
23.5%
Democrat 50-55%
3.4%
Democrat 55%+
3.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$60.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jonathan Jackson: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 97.6% · $2.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jonathan Jackson: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.3% · $2.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jonathan Jackson

If the House member sworn in for IL-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Illinois

  1. Illinois SenateD98%
  2. Illinois GovernorD97%
  3. IL-02 HouseD96%
  4. IL-03 HouseD96%
  5. IL-04 HouseD96%
  6. IL-05 HouseD97%
  7. IL-06 HouseD97%
  8. IL-07 HouseD97%