House · 3 November 2026

IL-17 House 2026

95.0% DEric Sorensen leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.7%
Kalshi: 94.6%
Spread: 2.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IL-17 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Meet the candidates in Illinois Congressional District 17

Democratic Congressman Eric Sorensen (left) and Republican challenger Dillan Vancil.

WVKC23h ago

Sorensen Vancil

Eric Sorensen, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DEric Sorensen	95.0%		96.7%	94.6%	2.1 pts	–
RDillan Vancil	3.1%		2.7%	3.8%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-17/embed.html" title="IL-17 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-17/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-il-17">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-17/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-il-17"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-17/card-landscape.png" alt="IL-17 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Dillan Vancil

Republican

Dillan Vancil is the Republican nominee for Illinois's 17th congressional district in 2026, having won the Republican primary with 58.4% of the vote, and faces Democratic incumbent Eric Sorensen.

Full candidate profile →

Eric Sorensen

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 17th congressional district (since 2023)

Eric Sorensen, a Democrat and former television meteorologist who has represented Illinois's 17th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Dillan Vancil.

Born 1976 · Rockford, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.4K contracts

Illinois's 17th District margin of victory

Sorensen, 3+ pts		92.8%
Sorensen, 6+ pts		86.6%
Sorensen, 9+ pts		75.0%
Sorensen, 12+ pts		65.5%
Sorensen, 15+ pts		55.5%
Sorensen, 18+ pts		44.5%
Sorensen, 21+ pts		33.0%
Sorensen, 24+ pts		22.5%
Sorensen, 27+ pts		11.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.4K traded

IL-17 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		3.5%
Democrat 0-5%		4.5%
Democrat 5-10%		10.0%
Democrat 10-15%		7.6%
Democrat 15-20%		25.0%
Democrat 20-25%		29.5%
Democrat 25-30%		19.0%
Democrat 30%+		5.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$32.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Eric Sorensen: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.4% · $6.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.4K contracts traded