US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IL-16 House.
The Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Caucus (CAPAC) issued a statement blaming the Trump administration for anti-South Asian hate, with signatories from CAPAC leadership, including Jill Tokuda (Second Vice…
The article discusses bipartisan congressional efforts to boost U.S. advanced manufacturing and job creation, highlighting challenges such as a skilled-worker shortage and high loan costs.
LaHoodThe page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The race for the Republican chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee is already under way, with two main contenders: Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL).
The Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA) acknowledges Illinois lawmakers who supported biofuel policy, including Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDarin LaHood | 95.5% | 95.5% | 95.5% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DPaul Nolley | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Darin LaHood, a Republican attorney who has served in the U.S. House since 2015 and represented Illinois's 16th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Paul Nolley, a nonprofit executive.
Paul Nolley, a Democrat and nonprofit executive, is the Democratic nominee for Illinois's 16th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Darin LaHood in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 16th District margin of victory
| LaHood, 6+ pts | 93.3% | |
| LaHood, 9+ pts | 79.0% implied | |
| LaHood, 12+ pts | 71.0% implied | |
| LaHood, 15+ pts | 60.5% | |
| LaHood, 18+ pts | 48.5% | |
| LaHood, 21+ pts | 33.5% | |
| LaHood, 24+ pts | 20.0% | |
| LaHood, 27+ pts | 10.9% | |
| LaHood, 30+ pts | 5.1% |
IL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 18.6% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 28.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 20.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 6.8% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 4.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Darin LaHood: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 96.5% · $294 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Darin LaHood: Counted · bid 93.5% / ask 97.6% · $1.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Darin LaHood
If the House member sworn in for IL-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
