US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for IL-11 House.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
The article discusses Democratic leadership dynamics in the House, highlighting Rep. Katherine Clark as a potential top leader if Democrats win the chamber.
Clark
Gottheimer
Cleaver
FosterTopic: Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri) and his stance within the House, particularly in relation to leadership dynamics and support for long-tenured members.
This post is a Binghamton Mets 2013 game notes preview for a series against the Erie SeaWolves, featuring key pitching and bullpen notes.
Topic: Ongoing investigation into suspicious substances mailed to congressional offices, with live updates reported by POLITICO.
FosterThe article discusses Rep. Maxine Waters’ leadership role on the House Financial Services Committee as she faces competition from Rep. Sean Casten and a potential bid from Rep. Bill Foster.
FosterNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBill Foster | 96.2% | 96.0% | 97.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJeff Walter | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Bill Foster, a Democrat and physicist who has represented Illinois's 11th congressional district since 2013, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Jeff Walter.
Jeff Walter is the Republican nominee for Illinois's 11th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Bill Foster after winning a four-candidate Republican primary with 42.6% of the vote.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 11th District margin of victory
| Foster, 8+ pts | 94.6% | |
| Foster, 11+ pts | 94.7% | |
| Foster, 14+ pts | 93.1% | |
| Foster, 17+ pts | 87.1% | |
| Foster, 20+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Foster, 23+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Foster, 26+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Foster, 29+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Foster, 32+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Foster, 35+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Foster, 38+ pts | 8.8% |
IL-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 4.2% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 25.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 32.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 6.0% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Bill Foster: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.9% · $2.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Bill Foster: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.6% · $585 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bill Foster
If the House member sworn in for IL-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
