US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IL-08 House.
The article notes Jennifer Davis P ’27, P ’30 was appointed to William & Mary’s Board of Visitors by Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger. She is described as a university professor and former senior U.S.
The CBS Chicago article covers former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean seeking to return to Congress in Illinois’ 8th District, challenging Republican Jennifer Davis.
Jennifer Davis is a candidate in Illinois' 8th Congressional District race. The CBS Chicago feature discusses the contest to succeed Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is stepping down after his term.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
Jennifer Davis, Republican candidate for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District, discusses her candidacy and priorities in a full CBS Chicago interview with reporter Chris Tye.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMelissa Bean | 94.7% | 95.0% | 94.5% | 0.4 pts | – | |
| RJennifer Davis | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jennifer Davis, a Republican service technology company founder, faces Democrat Melissa Bean, a former U.S. representative, for Illinois's open 8th congressional district seat in 2026.
Melissa Bean, a Democrat who represented Illinois's 8th congressional district from 2005 to 2011, is her party's nominee for the open 8th district seat in 2026 against Republican Jennifer Davis, a service technology company founder.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 8th District margin of victory
| Bean, 3+ pts | 94.0% | |
| Bean, 6+ pts | 89.1% | |
| Bean, 9+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Bean, 12+ pts | 78.0% | |
| Bean, 15+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Bean, 18+ pts | 52.0% implied | |
| Bean, 21+ pts | 40.0% implied | |
| Bean, 24+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Bean, 27+ pts | 14.5% |
IL-08 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 27.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 35.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 3.2% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 0.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Melissa Bean: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $662 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Melissa Bean: Counted · bid 93.3% / ask 95.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Melissa Bean
If the House member sworn in for IL-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
