House · 3 November 2026

IL-06 House 2026

96.5% DSean Casten leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.2%
Kalshi: 97.4%
Spread: 1.3 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sean Casten, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSean Casten	96.5%		96.2%	97.4%	1.3 pts	–
RNiki Conforti	2.5%		2.5%	2.5%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Niki Conforti

Republican

Niki Conforti, a Republican energy consultant and the party's 2024 nominee, faces Democratic incumbent Sean Casten again in the 2026 election for Illinois's 6th congressional district.

Full candidate profile →

Sean Casten

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 6th congressional district (since 2019)

Sean Casten, a Democrat who has represented Illinois's 6th congressional district since 2019, is seeking re-election in 2026 in a rematch against Republican Niki Conforti, an energy consultant.

Born 1971 · Dublin, Ireland

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.3K contracts

Illinois's 6th District margin of victory

Casten, 5+ pts		94.8%
Casten, 8+ pts		85.0%
Casten, 11+ pts		74.0%
Casten, 14+ pts		67.0%
Casten, 17+ pts		53.0%
Casten, 20+ pts		42.5%
Casten, 23+ pts		31.5%
Casten, 26+ pts		21.0%
Casten, 29+ pts		10.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.2K traded

IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1%
Democrat 0-5%		0.4%
Democrat 5-10%		4.5%
Democrat 10-15%		11.1%
Democrat 15-20%		29.4%
Democrat 20-25%		28.0%
Democrat 25-30%		13.5%
Democrat 30-35%		8.5%
Democrat 35%+		0.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$43.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sean Casten: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.0% · $1.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi826 contracts traded