House · 3 November 2026

IL-13 House 2026

96.4% DNikki Budzinski leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: 97.1%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IL-13 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Where do these IL candidates stand on data centers?

They also raise concerns about quality of life, including stress on local infrastructure and the potential effect on water and electric bills.

Belleville News-Democrat8h agoWilson

Nikki Budzinski, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DNikki Budzinski	96.4%		96.0%	97.1%	1.1 pts	–
RJeff Wilson	3.6%		3.7%	2.0%	1.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jeff Wilson

Republican Member of the Champaign County Board

Jeff Wilson, a Republican member of the Champaign County Board, is the Republican nominee for Illinois's 13th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Nikki Budzinski in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Nikki Budzinski

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 13th congressional district (since 2023)

Nikki Budzinski, a Democrat and former trade union official who has represented Illinois's 13th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Jeff Wilson, a Champaign County Board member.

Born 1977 · Peoria, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.8K contracts

Illinois's 13th District margin of victory

Budzinski, 9+ pts		93.8%
Budzinski, 12+ pts		–
Budzinski, 15+ pts		87.5%
Budzinski, 18+ pts		79.5%
Budzinski, 21+ pts		66.5%
Budzinski, 24+ pts		45.0% implied
Budzinski, 27+ pts		33.0%
Budzinski, 30+ pts		21.5%
Budzinski, 33+ pts		11.1%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.7K traded

IL-13 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.3%
Democrat 0-5%		2.1%
Democrat 5-10%		3.4%
Democrat 10-15%		4.8%
Democrat 15-20%		14.3%
Democrat 20-25%		21.5%
Democrat 25-30%		22.5%
Democrat 30-35%		30.0%
Democrat 35%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$21.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Nikki Budzinski: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.9% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.0K contracts traded